You really shouldn’t feel bad, because what happened has a low probability.
It’s like saying I should’ve invested in X which got quadrupled in price last year.
Most stocks (even very promising ones) didn’t achieve anywhere near that growth.
So you choosing the right one among the many to “shut up and stick to it just a little bit longer” has a low chance of exceptional returns on your investment.
You cannot see the future, even the most sophisticated analysis can be wrong, and even the best companies can stagnate for a loong time before getting lucky.
Exactly. This is like being dealt a horrible set of cards in poker and kicking yourself for folding. Let's say you got 2,7 and then found out the cards on the table turned out to be the rest of the 2s. Folding was still the right move
I wonder how widely the concept of expected value is discussed outside of poker or statistics. Simple concept, but it can really help with all kinds of decisions in life.
The problem is that people make lots of claims towards the direction of "stock options are always worthless" when they should say more like "stock options are often worthless but sometimes can be ridiculously valuable". Startup game just provides high returns to small minority, and some people after couple of negative experience seem to decide that everything must suck then and spread it around in here and other forums.
It’s like saying I should’ve invested in X which got quadrupled in price last year.
Most stocks (even very promising ones) didn’t achieve anywhere near that growth.
So you choosing the right one among the many to “shut up and stick to it just a little bit longer” has a low chance of exceptional returns on your investment.
You cannot see the future, even the most sophisticated analysis can be wrong, and even the best companies can stagnate for a loong time before getting lucky.