What is your replacement for baseline load? Solar alone isn't enough and the cost changes if you need battery infrastructure to handle dark times. Nuclear power doesn't stop when the weather changes.
I think the cost for nuclear and lead time will have gas powered and coal plants for dark times. The issue is the cost for these dark time power will go up. I have a friend who is a Wheelwright and he states that backup plants that only come online 3 days a month makes more money then if it was running 100% of the time.
That profitability is the consequence of regulation. Utilities are generally a government granted monopoly so any failure to provide service (brown or blackouts) comes with huge fines. Last I checked, the fine for a utility in Southern California for a blackout in the LA metro area could be as much as several hundred million dollars. That would wipe out the profitability for the year so the vast majority of utilities in the US own or contract out to "peaker" plants that are on standby but ready to quickly spin up.
If these regulations were updated to require less polluting peaker plants, nuclear might be the only option because the economics are government mandated. I wouldn't be surprised if California started moving this direction by 2050 if it can give up the Nat gas addiction.
