That chance of a 1-in-a-x_amount_of_time event happening does not change right after it happens, at least in a strictly statistical since. Baring any actual physical factors, likelihood of such an event is the same every day.
That chance of a 1-in-a-x_amount_of_time event happening does not change right after it happens
It would if it was based on bad or previous thinking and models. I think that's what the point was. We may need to throw out our old models, and if that happens this could be a lot more common.
