I would bet that the median outcome is failure. Even within an impressive group, you're not going to escape the basic power law dynamics in starting companies.
I mean, did the median founders have a good experience overall?
What is the distribution of personal satisfaction amongst founders? (Is that a power law too where nearly everybody is miserable and wishes they stayed in school, but the billionaires are so happy that it averages out? :-))
From random anecdotal observations, the median outcome is that the startup fails and the founding team splits up to do other things. These things are the typical things that intelligent high-achievers do - engineers at other tech companies, PMs, biz dev. I see a disproportionate number working on their own ideas or joining other YC startups that are doing well.
