A much better thing to look at is how much GDP growth do you get for each additional dollar/currency of debt?
If we borrow $1 and get $2 of GDP growth, great. If we borrow $1 and get 10 cents of GDP growth, big fucking problems ahead. Considering that the debt is going cost more than we borrowed, that benefit red line is pretty far ahead of $1.
Demographics are another trend to look at. Shrinking population generally means the GDP is going to end up going the same direction. On a micro-level we could examine Detroit, on a macro-level Japan. Both are returning developed land to farmland; quite a paradigm shift for someone who grew up watching fields turn in to suburbs. A country, or city, with a rapidly growing population needs to borrow money to build infrastructure. One that is shrinking may face a crises even with a much smaller debt load.
Thinking about recessions or perhaps even depressions is a bit simplistic. Both are bumps in the road. A more valuable idea is to look at the multi-decade trends where countries fall in and out of power or even cease to exist.
If we borrow $1 and get $2 of GDP growth, great. If we borrow $1 and get 10 cents of GDP growth, big fucking problems ahead. Considering that the debt is going cost more than we borrowed, that benefit red line is pretty far ahead of $1.
Demographics are another trend to look at. Shrinking population generally means the GDP is going to end up going the same direction. On a micro-level we could examine Detroit, on a macro-level Japan. Both are returning developed land to farmland; quite a paradigm shift for someone who grew up watching fields turn in to suburbs. A country, or city, with a rapidly growing population needs to borrow money to build infrastructure. One that is shrinking may face a crises even with a much smaller debt load.
Thinking about recessions or perhaps even depressions is a bit simplistic. Both are bumps in the road. A more valuable idea is to look at the multi-decade trends where countries fall in and out of power or even cease to exist.