> The worst case scenario for global warming is that it's an extinction-level event and civilization ends.
I don't buy that. Beginning of a new dark age with a breakdown of civilization and loss of advancements? Yes. Extinction-level event? No.
> The worst case scenario for antibiotic resistance is that people live with the medical uncertainties our grandparents and great-grandparents lived with.
No, actually the worst case is that the antibiotic period breeds superbugs that are both more virulent and harder to kill than those that came before. Antibiotic resistance comes about because of unintentional selective breeding of bacteria. We don't really know what other traits we are unintentionally selecting for. We could potentially be breeding a wordwide pandemic and not realize it. Which could bring about a new dark age with a breakdown of civilization and loss of advancements.
>> The worst case scenario for global warming is that it's an extinction-level event and civilization ends.
>I don't buy that. Beginning of a new dark age with a breakdown of civilization and loss of advancements? Yes. Extinction-level event? No.
Extinction-level event is a scientific term which refers to the rate of extinctions and the associated loss of biodiversity, it doesn't necessarily mean that we all die. And if you think there's a meaningful distinction between "civilization ends" and "breakdown of civilization"... wow, okay.
> Extinction-level event is a scientific term which refers to the rate of extinctions and the associated loss of biodiversity, it doesn't necessarily mean that we all die.
By the scientific definition, I will agree that climate change can be an extinction event. However, I still stand by my assertion that it will not end civilization.
> And if you think there's a meaningful distinction between "civilization ends" and "breakdown of civilization"... wow, okay.
"Civilization ends" is total and permanent. "Breakdown of civilization" is partial and temporary. That is why I referenced a dark age. We have been through civilization breakdowns before, albeit not since we became globally connected.
One thing to keep in mind is that all the easily-accessible sources of petrochemical energy have already been tapped. With our existing bootstrapped infrastructure, we can get at far less accessible energy sources. If we lose that infrastructure, it seems very very likely to me that humanity will never get back to its present state.
> the worst case is that the antibiotic period breeds superbugs that are both more virulent and harder to kill than those that came before.
If anything, antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria would generally be less fit in a world without antibiotics. E.g., sulfa drugs inhibit DHPS which is involved in producing what eventually becomes formic acid. Bacteria can resist sulfonamides by eliminating their dependence on DHPS, but then they depend on folic acid being present in their environment, and it won't always be available in human blood.
There have been several studies showing that, while this might generally be the case, there are strains of CA-MRSA that show no strong selective disadvantage compared to their wild-type, susceptible brethren.
While Venus' atmosphere is worth study, due to the theory that it underwent some sort of hyperactive climate change a few billion years ago, there are limits to the comparison:
- Venus is about 3/4 the distance from the Sun as Earth.
- Venus has slow, retrograde rotation that leaves a given portion of the surface exposed to the Sun for 56 Earth days at a time.
- Venus has no magnetic field, which causes the loss of water vapor and other light gases due to the solar wind
The currently published worst-case scenarios result in a couple degree centigrade increase until 2100; and in a millenium would turn my hometown into an equivalent of Florida. Granted, Florida itself would likely be a desert after such changes, but civilization would definitely be possible, and it's nowhere comparable to melting lead.
I don't buy that. Beginning of a new dark age with a breakdown of civilization and loss of advancements? Yes. Extinction-level event? No.
> The worst case scenario for antibiotic resistance is that people live with the medical uncertainties our grandparents and great-grandparents lived with.
No, actually the worst case is that the antibiotic period breeds superbugs that are both more virulent and harder to kill than those that came before. Antibiotic resistance comes about because of unintentional selective breeding of bacteria. We don't really know what other traits we are unintentionally selecting for. We could potentially be breeding a wordwide pandemic and not realize it. Which could bring about a new dark age with a breakdown of civilization and loss of advancements.