> Central banking is possibly the greatest human invention since sanitation. The U.S. central banking system ranks among the finest of its kind.
How did you come to that conclusion? Is this a common viewpoint?
EDIT: I am genuinely curious. It doesn't strike me as a great invention, but I could be wrong. I'd love to be convinced otherwise, for example by reasoned arguments of how things were before central banking and why things were so much better after and compared to all other alternatives, as well as what sets U.S. central banking system apart from the rest of the central banking systems in the world. Do you have any links to this type of reasoning?
I came to this conclusion after spending a significant fraction of my too-short lifespan studying how money works.
I am hardly an expert. But I (apparently) know a lot more than the average Joe. Seeing the rash of "end the fed" madness on the internet makes me very sad.
From my experience people who defend central banking usually are actually only defending US central banking, or Western superpower central banking. That's fine, but its at least a little troubling that good banking seems to correlate to some degree with having a strong military presence around the world.
In other words, I think the arguments against why Bitcoin is needed in the US are interesting and all, but ultimately miss the point (in my opinion). As someone who came from a country where the central banks were anything but amazing, and there is essentially a 5/10 year cycle that inevitably leads to hyperinflation, I can attest that these problems are in fact very real -- not scary stories told by crazy libertarians -- even if they don't happen to take place in the richest nations on earth. As such, Bitcoin provides a very interesting new hope to solving these problems in these areas, as opposed to yet another unfair loan from the IMF or exploitative foreign investments.
It's kind of like laughing at how silly filtering water bottles are because we have great water sanitation in America, while ignoring that this is a real issue in Africa.
> Even if they don't happen to take place in the richest nations on earth.
Germany 1930s - hyperinflation; Argentina 1990s - hyperinflation; USA 2010s - quantitative easing.
These can also be real problems even for the richest nations.
As you correctly mention - Iraq [1] & Libya [2] were essentially currency invasions and NOT oil invasions. Millions of innocent lives lost to keep the USD propped up. Wars that would make no sense under BTC.
It is true that QE has tremendously increased the money supply. Inflation remains around 1%. Inflation and money supply do not have a simple or linear relationship.
The oil thing is nonsense. All oil sales are enumerated in USD for historical reasons only. Dictators who face embargo by the U.S. would rather sell oil for other currencies in order to evade the embargoes.
Iran is trying to sell oil on their own private oil bourse right now. It is an operating concern, today, in 2014. They are perfectly free to sell oil for other currencies, but they are not finding a lot of buyers.
I realize you may not want to name your country, are you from Zimbabwe? The next most recent country going by the list on WP is Zaire (1998) and it wasn't repeating there.
Also have a read of David Graeber's "Debt: The first 5000 years". This "central banking" was invented way before sanitation, and is older than the currency itself.
But that same book also has a very succinct and useful definition of money - remember the scenario wherein thieves are stealing from you and you need a token to show to the thieves to prove you've already been stolen from that day ?
And then those tokens become valuable themselves ?
I thought that explanation was quite interesting but was unsure of its value in describing the real world. BUT THEN, I remember the description in Zinns _Peoples History of the United States_ wherein he describes exactly that scenario:
Columbus wanted gold out of Haiti. There was none. They told the natives to get it anyway, and gave them copper necklaces to indicate that they had fulfilled their gold tribute. "Indians found without a copper token had their hands cut off and bled to death."
So ... to whatever degree this picture of money is accurate, and it appears that it is more accurate than I thought after simply reading "Debt", and to whatever degree central banking is a continuation of that process ... I would have to look askance at central banking, yes ?
"The greater the need to improvise the more democratic the cooperation [within companies] tends to become. Inventors have always understood this, start-up capitalists frequently figure it out, and computer engineers have recently rediscovered the principle … Apple Computers is a famous example: it was founded by (mostly Republican) computer engineers who broke from IBM in Silicon Valley in the 1980s, forming little democratic circles of twenty to forty people with their laptops in each other’s garages."
I wouldn't trust any part of anything in the book.
I didn't interpret it as mean (but I see why someone could) but it raises a point different from 'I disagree'. "I studied this stuff intently" is a simple appeal to authority and does not make an argument credible. In this case, it does not tell anyone why central banking is the best idea since sanitation which is a very strong claim that needs some better support.
I agree that studying doesn't automatically make one an authority, and comes across as an appeal to authority. OTOH, prefacing the statement I replied to with "Obviously..." just came across to me as "it's obvious, because you don't know what you're talking about". Maybe I'm just reading too much into it.
What I mean is, you can study something even if you know that you won't understand it at the end of your studies. There's even stuff that you can have a full career in and still not understand completely, like Quantum Mechanics.
It's not a guarantee that by studying something you'll understand it, but learning more about it can be valuable in itself.
For example I can study some X technique in a language, e.g Monads, and know when to apply it and what it does, and be quite productive with it, even if I don't yet understand it (or never get to understanding type theory).
>> Central banking is possibly the greatest human invention since sanitation. The U.S. central banking system ranks among the finest of its kind.
> I came to this conclusion after spending a significant fraction of my too-short lifespan studying how money works.
Alright, I'll bite. Please educate me by answering these questions:
1) How are central banks "ranked"? What makes one better
than another?
2) What is the benefit of a central bank?
3) What makes fiat currency valuable?
4) Why is governments' ability to print limitless
amounts of fiat currency not a problem
with regard to its value?
5) .. and if it is, why are we all using fiat currency anyway?
I guess that's enough for now. Having spent years studying how money works, you should be able to breeze through these questions with satisfactory answers, right?
I do indeed have answers. I doubt they will satisfy you.
1. Central banks are ranked on two measures: a.) How independent are they? Are they easily swayed by politicians? b.) How well do they meet their mandates? The U.S. Fed is universally well-regarded in terms of its independence. It does less well on its "dual mandate."
2. Central banking systems make cash and checking possible. Without central banking, your bank-denominated money (whether "checking" or cash) is valued only to the extent that a third party trusts your bank. Your twenty dollar bill printed in Philadelphia becomes valueless in New York, 100 miles away. Fixing this problem makes business transactions, particularly lending, easier and more efficient.
3. Broadly, fiat currency is valuable because other people deem it to be so. Specifically, even if no other person on earth wants it, the IRS and the courts will accept it. Being able to pay my taxes and satisfy court judgments against me in fiat currency places a floor on its value. (It is interesting to observe fiat systems where you de facto can't pay your taxes in the fiat currency: north korea, cuba, zimbabwe, etc)
4. Ability is not action. It is a problem when and if they do happen to do so. (returning to the ranking question, the central bank that printed limitless amounts of currency would be very poorly ranked, since they would fail to meet inflation mandates) Secondly, we want the money supply to rise and fall with the economy. It is very important that the printing of money is not limited artificially, or else we encounter liquidity crises, bank runs, etc. The ancient demons of inflation and deflation.
5. Because the prior standard for currency, precious metal, was dangerously uncontrollable. The very word "dollar" comes from a place in Germany where silver was unexpectedly found, causing an economic crisis across Europe as cheap silver flooded the market.
You're right, your answers don't satisfy me, for example because your whole post is full of bullshit/misdirection. Not that it comes as a surprise.
> 1. Central banks are ranked on two measures: a.) How independent are they?
Central banks are never independent, because they're extremely central in governments' control of their money supplies.
> Are they easily swayed by politicians?
Of course they are. They exist to serve politicians (especially the shadowy figures behind the scenes), and massive financial corporations with first access to "free" (0% interest) money, with which to buy real, productive assets.
> b.) How well do they meet their mandates? The U.S. Fed is universally well-regarded in terms of its independence.
Universally, huh? We must live in different universes. Sure, it's supposedly a "private" entity, but obviously married to the government, buying treasuries like there's no tomorrow.
> It does less well on its "dual mandate."
The Fed's "dual mandate" is supposedly to control interest rates and employment. Too bad it can't create jobs - the best it can do is stop fucking with the economy and let businesses create jobs. Interest rates have been zero (or near it) for years, in an attempt to maintain and create bubbles to keep that inflation going, to lighten the government's debt load etc, and to maintain the illusion that the US economy is not in shambles. It is.
> 2. Central banking systems make cash and checking possible
Oh, right. Because gold wasn't used as "cash" for millennia before central banks entered the picture? Money is just a medium of exchange, and gold was used as one exactly because its properties make it suitable for it.
> Without central banking, your bank-denominated money (whether "checking" or cash) is valued only to the extent that a third party trusts your bank
No, without central banking, my medium of exchange works just fine. That's why it's a medium of exchange - because it can be exchanged for stuff.
> Your twenty dollar bill printed in Philadelphia becomes valueless in New York, 100 miles away. Fixing this problem makes business transactions, particularly lending, easier and more efficient.
I'm not sure how to decipher this.
> 3. Broadly, fiat currency is valuable because other people deem it to be so.
Almost. Fiat currency is valuable because other people are willing to accept it in exchange for goods and services.
> Specifically, even if no other person on earth wants it, the IRS and the courts will accept it.
In fact, they will downright demand it. Governments will forcefully confiscate a percentage of what you earn, and strangely enough, they all want to get it in a specific fiat currency. Go figure.
> Being able to pay my taxes and satisfy court judgments against me in fiat currency places a floor on its value
Being forced to pay taxes in it does that. This, incidentally, was my point earlier, as I suspect you knew all along.
> 4. Ability is not action. It is a problem when and if they do happen to do so.
Oh? Does "QE" ring a bell? .. What about QE2? Or perhaps you're familiar with the still on-going QE3 they're talking about "tapering" to something like "only" 75 billion dollars per month in freshly created thin-air money?
You're so full of shit it stinks all the way to Finland. Again, not a surprise.
> Secondly, we want the money supply to rise and fall with the economy.
Who's we? And no, "we" don't. In fact, in a free market, the rising and falling of the money supply would be negligible because whatever would be used as currency could not be manipulated by anyone (by, say, pressing a button and conjuring 666 trillion quatloos into your account).
No one actually wants to use fiat currency, because it's manipulated at will by governments.
> 5. Because the prior standard for currency, precious metal, was dangerously uncontrollable.
Being uncontrollable is one of the fundamental reasons why gold was used as currency, and it's a fundamental reason for why Bitcoin has become so popular. Here in the real world, we really want our currencies to be uncontrollable by anyone.
For someone who's studied "how money works" for years, you sure are clueless about it. Of course, you might just be a government shill, out to mislead people.
If you use gold as your currency, your money supply is determined by the vagaries of the gold-mining industry vis a vis the economy.
When the economy is booming, if not enough gold is being mined to satisfy the need, you will have a tight money supply and all of the ugly consequences one associates with an excessively tight monetary policy. Credit becomes scarce. Growth slows. Prices fall.
If a few rich veins are discovered, and gold pours onto the market, you effectively have an excessively loose monetary "policy." Far too much gold chases too few goods. Prices rise. Bubbles inflate.
This is equally true of, say, Bitcoin. There is a fixed number being mined. A variable number are lost. Economic growth varies every year. If you were to use BTC as a national currency, your nation could be forced into an ugly monetary situation because you have put money supply outside your control. The money supply will grow and shrink for its own reasons, independently of your economy.
In any case, money supply is still a problem for businessmen. You have just surrendered human control of the supply to the natural environment (gold) or to a computer algorithm that doesn't account for your economic status in its inputs (BTC).
You got one of those right, Mr. Money Expert. I'll let you try and figure out which one.
> If a few rich veins are discovered, and gold pours onto the market, you effectively have an excessively loose monetary "policy."
The thing is, there's no need for a monetary "policy", and effecting one requires coercion. People will use whatever is the most suitable for a medium of exchange. It needs to be durable, easily divisible, valuable, and something that can't be just conjured up in massive quantities. Gold was used because it has these characteristics.
Other than that, you just leave people alone, and let them produce real wealth.
> your nation could be forced into an ugly monetary situation because you have put money supply outside your control
No, that would be a beautiful monetary situation, and "YOU" here can only be the government - some kind of central monopoly on violence that can force people to use its currency instead of whatever had emerged as a reliable medium of exchange.
You're still spewing bullshit. In a way, I hope you actually are a government shill whore puppet, instead of someone who wasted several years of his life on a completely clueless economics education.
You have a de facto monetary policy imposed on you whether you like it or not. It is "coercion" only in the sense that it is outside your personal control.
This can be the blind "coercion" of a computer algorithm, the unintentional "coercion" of precious metals mining, or it can be the careful determination of a council of bureaucrats and businessmen.
Removing people from the equation is an option, but it doesn't remove the market forces.
> You have a de facto monetary policy imposed on you whether you like it or not. It is "coercion" only in the sense that it is outside your personal control.
No, it's coercion because I'm forced to pay taxes in a fiat currency of the government's choosing, and alternative currencies are shut down (by force, of course): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberty_Dollar
> This can be the blind "coercion" of a computer algorithm, the unintentional "coercion" of precious metals mining
See above. Not that you're being sincere.
> Removing people from the equation is an option, but it doesn't remove the market forces.
I haven't talked about removing people from the equation.
It wouldn't make sense either, because "market forces" consist of people's actions in the market. What else could it be? It's very simple once you grasp even the very basics of how money and economies work.
If you rely on precious metals as money, they make a perfectly good medium of exchange. Unfortunately, the money supply will still change.
Imposing a fixed amount of money on the world does not somehow imply that there is a fixed supply of money. This was a central problem in European economies for thousands of years.
You hate the central banks. Great. What's your solution? Chaining your economy to precious metals or a computer algorithm is an unpleasant alternative.
(An interesting historical option: rather than precious metals, Chinese accounts were historically backed by the productive capacity of the land. i.e. capital was defined in terms of rice. This had its own ugly side-effects. Still, it was, in many ways, less ugly than relying on precious metals, since money supply was at least somewhat correlated with economic activity)
Do you even know why the US went off the gold standard? If gold is such a panacea, then why did the US get off it? You should really understand history before you start spouting nonsense.
#4 Why is governments' ability to print limitless amounts of fiat currency not a problem with regard to its value?
Having the ability and using it are two completely different things.
"Competent economic management" (which establishes trust in a currency) is the answer to #2, #3. #1 - They are ranked by their primary objective which is slow stable growth.
Frankly, Rothbard's book is not particularly likely to change the mind of anyone with a good grasp of economics or finance because it's basically an extended political pamphlet which doesn't actually address the arguments economists make against the gold standard.
Economists, for example, believe that hoarding is detrimental to investment because [some more] individuals will be rationally inclined to hoard rather than invest in a noninflationary environment, resulting in fewer real goods and services being produced. Rothbard manages to write an entire chapter claiming that "hoarding never brings any loss to society" without any reference to investment, or the effects of expected zero inflation (or deflation) on propensity to invest. He even describes the beginning of a credit crunch "suppose, for whatever reason--perhaps growing apprehension--people's demand for cash balances increases" as a good thing which it would be a "positive social benefit to satisfy"! Let them eat coins! What happens to the people who want to make stuff to sell at a profit and face both increasing borrowing costs and decreasing prices isn't discussed...
There is a practical example where the incentive to hoard has not stopped transactions: the technology industry. Since the dawn of computers and personal electronics, the purchasing power of the dollar for technology products increases drastically year-by-year, and yet transactions continue to occur.
If a currency or commodity accumulates value, the seller's incentive to acquire it is mathematically equal to the buyer's incentive to hoard it. Eventually, they meet in the middle and find a mutually agreeable price, because people will always want goods and services.
Just as one does not read alchemical texts for insight into modern chemistry, I have not spent very much of my life reading the Austrian school.
There is certainly a great deal of historical interest for students of philosophy, but that isn't in line with my personal interests. Broadly speaking, the Austrian school has little relevance to the study of economics or finance.
A preference for some economic texts over others seems more like a preference for some alchemical texts over others than a preference for chemistry texts over alchemical texts.
Thanks, I just bought that for the Kindle for a few dollars. Another book in a similar vein is "The Currency Wars" which I really enjoyed, and then shared with my family. TLDR: the financial system is rigged to make the rich richer; getting off a fiat currency would in general (and long term) help 99% people. BTW, it still blows my mind that so many friends think the US economy is so great right now, ignoring the $3 trillion in money created out of nothing in the last few years; sure stock and home prices were maneuvered higher.
You can't talk about central banking authorities as a single type of homogenous system. There have been and are many different kinds of central banks over time and across borders. Each are run and incentivised very differently. Each operate with different levels of competency and available data. Each can be motivated radically differently - e.g. some are basically run by the government and are prone to political pressure whereas some are run by relatively independent committees (such as Canada, UK, New Zealand).
But Central Banks have the ability to make a huge difference in the quality of life/standard of living in a country depending on its competency and understanding of the economy. If you take the US as an example and compare the response to the 2 greatest financial crashes in the last century. The Fed in 1923 operated under poor information and took the exact wrong course to mitigate a financial crash by contracting monetary supply. Contrast with the Fed in 2008 to date (despite complaints) - its steps in producing massive quantitative easing was the exactly right thing to do. Given their likely responses, there are many more jobs and more economic output today than would have existed had we swapped the 1923 and 2008 federal reserve - I don't think many economists will disagree on that point.
With a decentralised currency like Bitcoin, my understanding is that monetary factors cannot be controlled. So you'd lose a very important tool when it comes to regulating the economy/applying course corrections over economic cycles.
Looking at the actions of the Fed after the crises is only evaluating half of the situation. For example, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, hardly a libertarian group, blames the Fed and its chairmen for enabling the crisis to happen in the first place.
"The prime example is the Federal Reserve’s pivotal failure to stem the flow of toxic mortgages, which it could have done by setting prudent mortgage-lending standards. The Federal Reserve was the one entity empowered to do so and it did not."
Ah, but the crisis would have happened in the absence of the Federal reserve. In fact, one could easily argue that the Fed was lobbied heavily, HEAVILY to do less by external forces and those forces succeeded. You cannot come to the conclusion that a lack of a Fed would have made markets more stable.
I think the broader point is that financial bubbles will happen with or without supposed regulation. The question remains what can be done when it happens?
Without a centralised monetary authority you lose an important tool to manage a crash.
>You can't talk about central banking authorities as a single type of homogenous system.
Actually you can. The modern central banking system is all part of the same homogenous system, coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Switzerland, the umbrella bank for all central banks in the world.
How did you come to that conclusion? Is this a common viewpoint?
EDIT: I am genuinely curious. It doesn't strike me as a great invention, but I could be wrong. I'd love to be convinced otherwise, for example by reasoned arguments of how things were before central banking and why things were so much better after and compared to all other alternatives, as well as what sets U.S. central banking system apart from the rest of the central banking systems in the world. Do you have any links to this type of reasoning?