Firstly I don't think anyone really needed a 1000 word essay on why hiring is inherently probabilistic, I think that much is obvious.
The ultimate issue surrounding using github as signal is whether the presence of a github profile is inherently meaningful signal independent of every other factor. People who advocate github are usually implying (either explicitly or implicitly) that someone who codes outside of their day job (and then uploads it to share with the world) is more "passionate" and therefore a better coder. Many people disagree with this. It's been repeated ad nauseum why this reasoning is faulty: everything from getting your fill of creative work during your 9-5 to maintaining good work/life balance. Just the presence of a github with some activity is not an indication of passion or more importantly quality code.
Of course, people who defend using github like to say well I can know a candidate better by looking at their code samples before hiring them. Again, this absolutely goes without saying. If you want a code sample, just ask for one. I'm sure most people can provide something for you to peruse. If not, keep a simple task handy that you can give them to crank out in a few hours. Such an easy solution to this non-problem.
The reality is this is all just the rationalization here. What's really going on is people use github because that's what they're into. "It's obvious that I'm a top developer, therefore my behaviors are indications of top developers". Bullshit. This is just another symptom of the "hiring in my own image" phenomenon that's rampant in this world. Those of us who claim to be rational must recognize this and realize it's nothing but narcissism.
And no, the claim that anyone who is against using github as signal are people who aren't passionate/would be rejected/etc. I have plenty of code that I write on my own to scratch particular itches. Everything from machine learning scripts to greasemonkey scripts to patches to borked java applications. None of them were written with wider consumption in mind, and so I am not prepared to release them to the world. If you want to see it I have no problem showing it to you with the understanding that it may not be polished and not always follow best-practices when working on a team. Anything I produce is a reflection of myself so anything I release to the world must have a certain level of effort and polish put into it, otherwise I simply would not be comfortable.
The ultimate issue surrounding using github as signal is whether the presence of a github profile is inherently meaningful signal independent of every other factor. People who advocate github are usually implying (either explicitly or implicitly) that someone who codes outside of their day job (and then uploads it to share with the world) is more "passionate" and therefore a better coder. Many people disagree with this. It's been repeated ad nauseum why this reasoning is faulty: everything from getting your fill of creative work during your 9-5 to maintaining good work/life balance. Just the presence of a github with some activity is not an indication of passion or more importantly quality code.
Of course, people who defend using github like to say well I can know a candidate better by looking at their code samples before hiring them. Again, this absolutely goes without saying. If you want a code sample, just ask for one. I'm sure most people can provide something for you to peruse. If not, keep a simple task handy that you can give them to crank out in a few hours. Such an easy solution to this non-problem.
The reality is this is all just the rationalization here. What's really going on is people use github because that's what they're into. "It's obvious that I'm a top developer, therefore my behaviors are indications of top developers". Bullshit. This is just another symptom of the "hiring in my own image" phenomenon that's rampant in this world. Those of us who claim to be rational must recognize this and realize it's nothing but narcissism.
And no, the claim that anyone who is against using github as signal are people who aren't passionate/would be rejected/etc. I have plenty of code that I write on my own to scratch particular itches. Everything from machine learning scripts to greasemonkey scripts to patches to borked java applications. None of them were written with wider consumption in mind, and so I am not prepared to release them to the world. If you want to see it I have no problem showing it to you with the understanding that it may not be polished and not always follow best-practices when working on a team. Anything I produce is a reflection of myself so anything I release to the world must have a certain level of effort and polish put into it, otherwise I simply would not be comfortable.