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20k is nothing. Smartphone manufacturers will laugh at you for fewer than hundreds of thousands. To get a good deal they want to see millions.


Did you miss this part?

>"That's 20k potential sales of a phone that doesn't exist, using an OS that's still in development, to a tiny subset of individuals willing to engage in crowd sourcing."

I think it's pretty clear what the parent means to say there. That demonstrating that much demand after accounting for multiple, large limiting factors could extrapolate to much larger numbers with those factors removed.

Cards Against Humanity collected $15.5K from 750 people via Kickstarter and went on to make an estimated $12M with wide availability [0].

The card makers of the world likely would have laughed at a game with 750 sales, but today I'm sure they'd all love to hold down the top 4 best-seller spots on Amazon [1].

Yes, phones and card games aren't a direct comparison, but the parent had a good point and focusing on one number is awfully myopic.

0: http://www.chicagogrid.com/enterprise/cards-against-humanity...

1: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/toys-and-games/16623901...


20k is nothing ... for direct phone sales.

It's a lot of F-22 fighters, though. And a lot of Christmas hams for one family (but not a nation).

How many times do 20k customers pool millions of dollars to go towards the development of a phone?

20k people willing to pay $800 per phone is a tiny market.

20k people who care enough to pledge $800 towards development of something that doesn't exist is a huge group of passionate early adopters.




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