I think the real test of a futurist's predictions, in order to determine if we have in fact arrived in the future, is not to see what came true and what did not come true.
No, the real test is to see how many predicting things make you stop and say, "wait, they didn't already have that back then?"
I stopped several times at the 6AM section and realized I thought something predicted had always worked that way. I would think this only works when the predictions are from before you were born, but I was certainly alive in 1988 and I can't for the life of me remember a time without smart thermostats that run on a schedule or coffee makers with simple timers. When you're astonished that something basic now wasn't already common when the prediction was made (within reason), that's when you're definitely living in the future, even if you're still waiting for your flying car.
I often think of things the opposite way. As I grew up I always thought everything had only worked the way it did since the time I was born, and then I'm surprised to find out that it was working that way for 10+ years before that.
Actually, they did have a lot of that back then, I'm not sure why the author thought it was so fantastically futuristic. Coffee makers with timers are old as dirt, and the heating system is not terribly more advanced than lots of systems in existence back then.
the real test is to see how many [predictions] make you stop and say, "wait, they didn't already have that back then?"
This is a better test because puts the onus on the original author writing honestly about what exists at the time of writing, rather than on making really good predictions.
No, the real test is to see how many predicting things make you stop and say, "wait, they didn't already have that back then?"
I stopped several times at the 6AM section and realized I thought something predicted had always worked that way. I would think this only works when the predictions are from before you were born, but I was certainly alive in 1988 and I can't for the life of me remember a time without smart thermostats that run on a schedule or coffee makers with simple timers. When you're astonished that something basic now wasn't already common when the prediction was made (within reason), that's when you're definitely living in the future, even if you're still waiting for your flying car.