I think your last paragraph is an important further part of the logic. If there is going to continue to be a big-ticket games industry, it needs to pull in new customers or it'll eventually choke off. The way to do that is with casual games; some percentage of such users will step up from there.

Casual games are the future of the big-budget industry.

I've been gaming a bit with my wife. While I don't normally consider myself "hard core" in most senses, my skill set is, whereas she is in the "played some Nintendo as a kid". (She can still beat me at Dr. Mario, but that's it.) I still note there is no apparent path from casual gaming to Mass Effect; it's still a huge jump. In my wife's case, I don't forsee her ever enjoying Mass Effect, but looking through her eyes, I wouldn't know how to get there, which is a problem in general.