Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with you. But given the economic craziness right now, I'd say that (some) dividend paying stocks qualify at black swans. At least the market thinks so, because they value the shares so that annual dividends are 30+% of the share price. The market wouldn't allow 30% ROI per year into perpetuity on a non risky investment.
In fact, assuming that the risk free interest rate is at 2%, the Net Present Value of a $1 30% annuity is $15. Which means that the market expects that there is, approximately, a 90% chance of that company going bankrupt in the near future. (Having looked over NRFs books myself, I think that the chance is considerably less than 90%. Which means, I think NRF is undervalued by the market, and hence is a bargain).
In fact, assuming that the risk free interest rate is at 2%, the Net Present Value of a $1 30% annuity is $15. Which means that the market expects that there is, approximately, a 90% chance of that company going bankrupt in the near future. (Having looked over NRFs books myself, I think that the chance is considerably less than 90%. Which means, I think NRF is undervalued by the market, and hence is a bargain).