Knowledge worker compensation is 35 - 50 trillion a year globally (6 - 12T in the US alone.) That's a huge TAM. It's still close but 5T over 5 years seems doable.
>... unless we figure out how to make developers 2x, 5x, 10x as productive on stuff that matters, this isn't going to play out well.
The way we make ICs 10x productive is not just making each of them individually more productive, but by removing the coordination overhead of large organizations, because overhead scales super-linearly with the size of the org. And orgs will shrink automatically as AI-assisted ICs take ownership of larger and larger scopes of work, leaving much more budget for tokens.
https://github.com/danielmiessler/Substrate/blob/main/Data/K...
Knowledge worker compensation is 35 - 50 trillion a year globally (6 - 12T in the US alone.) That's a huge TAM. It's still close but 5T over 5 years seems doable.
>... unless we figure out how to make developers 2x, 5x, 10x as productive on stuff that matters, this isn't going to play out well.
The way we make ICs 10x productive is not just making each of them individually more productive, but by removing the coordination overhead of large organizations, because overhead scales super-linearly with the size of the org. And orgs will shrink automatically as AI-assisted ICs take ownership of larger and larger scopes of work, leaving much more budget for tokens.
I went into this in a bit more detail along with some made-up numbers here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=48040999