There are so many ramifications, specially with what happens in terms on the national relationships once the money flow is cut to some with drugs being made legal. We don't know how bad things could get for Mexico, and which strings are being pulled when the wrong people being left out of the money. There's also the people. It's easy to think a narc will become a happy member of society and do the nice drugs business once it's legal and stay there in a bubble. You're talking about people knowingly poisoning others and murdering by the hundred. Legalizing the substance won't make those people ethical well behaved persons caring for society. With truckloads of capital to move to other industries, imagine if the doors are fully open for top cartel people to move freely and move to rule the food, communications, or health industries. They're not the kind of people who would rather loose money to stop producing a bad batch of food that poisons people or avoid making people sick to increase profits.They can easily threaten a government inspector, wipe whoever gets in their way since they already do that, plus they have many of the law enforcers in their payroll. It's not like making new law will stop them from doing things their way. If legalization is the solution, at least first their economy and power can't be big enough so that they won't wreck other hubs in the country. So far seems like a fight to make cartels as small as possible to be controllable.
Without ongoing revenue the shadow government cannot sustain its own life. It's blood is bribes (quite literally sadly).
This idea that cartels can take their capital on hand and then move directly into being the monopoly player in some other market is more than a bit fantastic.
They already do it, but it's the extend of it the worrying thing. There's plenty of known "Narc owned" businesses in mexico. I'm from there and it's quiet a thing to see strange things like 3 car washes in the same block, with no clients, open 24/7 and some escalades parked. Now imagine if they had a steady flow of clean fully open income to invest and the doors open to become public persons.
I have a feeling you mean drug lords or cartel or drug dealers when you say narc. However, narc is actually a good guy, ie a cop or federal agent enforcing the drug laws.
In Mexico it's common to refer to people connected to the cartels as 'los narcos'. A bit backwards from what you'd expect in English, but that's how things go when languages collide.
What I was saying is that, given how much money comes in from drugs, they are already able to own plenty. Even when drug money can't be spent freely or things done openly. If drugs are legal then 100% of the money is available freely to a handful of people from cartels, who may even own a significant % of Mexico's Gdp. I'm imagining a situation similar to Italy, there are articles on the Naples trash monopoly owned by the mafia for example. With so much money, cartels can easily own larger industries in Mexico and I'm not sure that's a good thing.
I don't think you understand what's being discussed when people talk about legalization in the US. If the US legalizes, the cartels are not going to be the ones supplying drugs to anyone in the US. Legalization in the US will not legitimize the cartel's business, it will destroy it.
Usage rates of marijuana in Mexico are one tenth the US, and Mexico has one third the population. Without the US black market, the cartels' revenue will be reduced to just a couple percent of their current intake.
I've read quite a bit about the situation in Italy as well. It's not easy to compare what happened to Italy with what's going on in Mexico now. The Cosa Nostra were never dependent on drug or smuggling revenue in the same way as the Mexican cartels are currently. The US military directly supported them as part of the invasion of Italy in WW2. After the war during reconstruction, Cosa Nostra was able to monopolize nearly all construction revenue in southern Italy and integrate itself into every corner of Italian government and public life. The Mexican cartels are terrifyingly powerful, but they are nowhere near close to that yet.
He does have a point though, that they may get there eventually.
I don't think the cartels will disappear overnight, either. But they will see a large chuck of funding dry up, and it will then be easier to after them for their previous crimes as well as whatever they get into next.
