I don't think this is as important as it is made out to be. These preposterously high speeds will certainly create opportunities for << internet >> applications, but I think that they are much less relevant for << web >> applications. The web is the internet's killer app and I suspect this will always be the case. There will be important transformations to be sure, but with more bandwidth we will just have more of the same.
I think that the web is a better interactive application than bandwidth-intensive video alternatives. It (even MySpace) inherently stimulates our higher brain functions, whereas video seems to universally produce a trance-like state. (Although, I suspect this may be a prime opportunity for impression based advertising.) However good a business that may be, I won't be a drug pusher.
More bandwidth doesn't make the internet a new medium; it just makes room for more of what we already have. If I had to guess what The New New Thing will be on the coming high bandwidth internet (and of course all of us here need to), I would say that it will be the old old things that people have been trying from the start. I think it will be nationwide video on demand; I think it will be bit torrent with a toll. I don't think it is an interesting problem for hackers or entrepreneurs. It is too messy. It is for suits in the media companies to clean up.
edit: I may have spoken too quickly. A moment after I posted this, I began to wonder how much bandwidth is necessary to eliminate the need for a local computer. That would make one hell of an internet application. I'm sure there are plenty more. But, I still trust that the web is here to stay.
You're right that in the CURRENT state of affairs, high speeds don't do much for web applications as we know them to exist today. The web is here to stay, but not in the form we currently know it.
I disagree that "more bandwidth...will be more of the same." The reason is when I look at other aspects of computing that have gotten better in the past, and what they've enabled, it seems like that's not true.
a couple decades ago, 1MB RAM was unfathomable. What would you possibly do with all that space? We can write programs in 64kb! Well, looks like we added layers and layers of abstractions to make it easier for programmers at the expense of more work for computers.
The miniaturization of hard drives and the increase in their capacity has changed the game a quite a bit. iPods would not be possible without small hard drives. While it's not the only reason, without it or other similar technology, we wouldn't have had a change in consumer music and culture.
Like your edit says, with huge bandwidth, your computer here is just as good as a computer "there" Imagine if your internet connection is as fat of a pipe as the one going from your hard drive to your motherboard. SCSI, ATA100, whatever. Remote desktop applications will be just as fast as locally running one nowadays.
If that's the case, 3D gaming can be completely remote, and subscription based gaming can become the norm, rather than purchasing boxes and CDs.
If video and TV really do make it on the internet, I imagine it can change the way we watch it. No longer do we see disjointed segments of content, nor will we have 'channels' where we have to wait to watch something. We will be able to pick and choose what we watch, even entire archives of past shows at our whim. On demand won't just be for movies anymore. (Well, that's given that the noose of big media doesn't strangle innovation)
My guess is more bandwidth won't be much more of the same. We'll see more "wasted" bandwidth according to our present defn, but they'll be used in entirely different ways.
I think that the web is a better interactive application than bandwidth-intensive video alternatives. It (even MySpace) inherently stimulates our higher brain functions, whereas video seems to universally produce a trance-like state. (Although, I suspect this may be a prime opportunity for impression based advertising.) However good a business that may be, I won't be a drug pusher.
More bandwidth doesn't make the internet a new medium; it just makes room for more of what we already have. If I had to guess what The New New Thing will be on the coming high bandwidth internet (and of course all of us here need to), I would say that it will be the old old things that people have been trying from the start. I think it will be nationwide video on demand; I think it will be bit torrent with a toll. I don't think it is an interesting problem for hackers or entrepreneurs. It is too messy. It is for suits in the media companies to clean up.
edit: I may have spoken too quickly. A moment after I posted this, I began to wonder how much bandwidth is necessary to eliminate the need for a local computer. That would make one hell of an internet application. I'm sure there are plenty more. But, I still trust that the web is here to stay.