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I don't understand what "low risk" means here. For a start-up, 99% risk of failure is low. What are we comparing that to?


It's low risk from the acquirer's point of view. Somebody else paid for that research, you just get to buy it once it's proven itself sufficiently to your liking.


Sure. But at that point the purchase price is much higher than the cost of the research.


Well usually they only get acquired when they have something the purchaser wants, revenue was obviously not the get here


The tv series Silicon Valley has a good episode where they discuss the importance of a start-up not having any revenue. Being pre revenue apparently means unlimited potential, with any level of revenue being bad, as you always have to grow it.


I have been in actual conversations where the topic was whether to avoid revenue to prevent being measured on it...

That show was very on the nose about a great many things.


Yeah. That's totally real. (But I get that it was also funny, and I loved that show.)


I don't exactly disagree. But the word "obvious" doesn't work very well during a bubble. Sure, yes, the current revenue doesn't justify the purchase price. But that doesn't mean that anything justifies the purchase price.

We can't work backward rationally from "this deal makes sense" and get to "here's why". Corporate acquisitions often don't work that way, even when there's no bubble. The price is often just not justified at all. By anything.

In many cases they're just capitalizing testosterone.


Yeah I'm with you, didn't mean to imply there was any sort of underlying wisdom or truth behind the choice. People just love to rationalize


It could mean different things I guess, but here’s my take:

If you do very risky R&D in a big corpo then the risk creeps into other things: other projects might look at the R&D and say, “we will just use that when it’s done”. It’s a lazy kind of move for tech leaders to make, because it makes you look like a team player, and if the R&D goes belly up then you have someone else to blame. This ultimately leads to risky R&D in a big corpo not being compartmentalized as much as it should be. If it fails, it fails super hard with lots of fallout.

But risky R&D at a startup is compartmentalized. Nobody will say they use the output of the startup until there are signs of life, and even then healthy caution is applied.


Low risk for the large companies


Totally. I understand what the claim is. I don't understand why anyone would believe it.


Maybe the loses are limited to the amount of the investment in the startup? No risk of consuming more resources than intended before dying.

If those things were integrated into the giant there would be political risk of it eating all of the money of the giant.




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