I can't recall the article, but on a note related to large-scale emergencies, a wave of excess deaths appear 1-2 years after a major local disaster like a flood, fire, or similar. It's not exactly clear what the source is if it's not stress. Rhetorical questions food for thought: Could it be major life upheavals cause interruptions in previously healthy habits to be replaced with less healthy habits, less personal resources and less access to healthcare after disasters, latent stress follows people around, or that stressful events inherently cause acute but unknown injury resulting in premature death? With the COVID pandemic and shelter-in-place, I would expect a similar wave of excess mortality too unrelated to infection and mental health effects.
In particular, COVID led to a massive shift to remote work. On the one hand, commuting to work, especially in the US where most commuting is driving, could potentially save lives. On the other hand though, it could cause people to spend more time sitting at home/less movement throughout the day, and also less social interaction/more isolation and loneliness. I could imagine these changes driving excess mortality
