> you hit the second issue of potentially miffing and alienating Asian partners like Japan and South Korea, semi-aligned states like India, and opposing states like China
China is already arming Russia. Japanese and Korea refiners have been phasing out Russian crude. Miffing New Delhi is well worth forcing Moscow to move air defences around.
> Japanese and Korea refiners have been phasing out Russian crude
Their refineries are phasing out Russian crude, but Japanese and Korean firms continue to extract, maintain, and invest in large capex projects like Sakhalin-I and Sakhalin-II. Notably - Mitsui Group (JP), Mitsubishi Group (JP), JAPEX (JP), Tohoku Electric (JP), and KOGAS (KR) have continued to operate in Russian ONG projects and comply with Russian investment laws.
> China is already arming Russia
Yep, and they have a controlling stake in Ukraine's economy itself, with significant portions of Ukraine's MIC and Ag industry owned an operated by Chinese companies - which means Ukraine cannot target Chinese owned or associated assets without facing domestic blowback from China such as sudden loan repayments or export controls on intermediate parts.
> Miffing New Delhi is well worth forcing Moscow to move air defences around
I agree, but Ukrainian missiles aren't reaching Vladivostok or Sakhalin unless we give them ICBMs. Most Asian investments in Russian ONG are all the way in the Far East which is outside the range of anything short of an ICBM for Ukraine.
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That's what makes this a pickle.
The ONG assets Ukraine is hitting in Russia are primarily for domestic consumption with some amount of export to Turkiye, Azerbaijan, or Hungary. But they don't actually prevent Asian buyers from continuing to operate - only sanctions can do that. And on top of that, Asian buyers have figured out fairly sophisticated ways to bypass secondary sanctions against Russia [0]. And the Asian assets which they could try to target would lead to severe blowback from one of Ukraine's largest trading and FDI partners. In a prolonged war of economic attrition, I'm not sure how Ukraine can win without on-the-ground support from the EU and US, because economic pressure such as sanctions don't have the same staying power that they did 10 years ago.
> Ukraine cannot target Chinese owned or associated assets without facing domestic blowback from China such as sudden loan repayments or export controls on intermediate parts
Fair enough for ownership. Don't think so for associated.
That said, China being sensitive to such attacks is itself leverage for Kyiv. China retaliating against Ukraine in the way you describe would be a massive geopolitical win for America, inasmuch as it would make clear the deal with the devil every adversary of Russia, Iran and North Korea's makes when they rely on China.
> Ukrainian missiles aren't reaching Vladivostok or Sakhalin unless we give them ICBMs
China is already arming Russia. Japanese and Korea refiners have been phasing out Russian crude. Miffing New Delhi is well worth forcing Moscow to move air defences around.