Is it really so counterintuitive? I think PG is making it out to be more complicated than it really is.
Solve a big, annoying problem for lots of people. Dropbox was obviously a great idea; look at how much trouble people went through to share files (using flashdrives, CDs, email, spammy uploading sites or ones that enforced a delay) before it got big. Just because there are existing players in the space doesn't mean the problem is solved. There are so many other major inconveniences that people have to put up with that are incredibly ripe for disruption. Healthcare - why is it so damn hard to get an instant, cheap medical opinion on a non-urgent but still worrying issue if you don't have a doctor in the family? Apartment rental (for both owners and tenants).
The hard part is not telling whether or not something is a good idea. It's evaluating whether or not the team can pull it off.
Solve a big, annoying problem for lots of people. Dropbox was obviously a great idea; look at how much trouble people went through to share files (using flashdrives, CDs, email, spammy uploading sites or ones that enforced a delay) before it got big. Just because there are existing players in the space doesn't mean the problem is solved. There are so many other major inconveniences that people have to put up with that are incredibly ripe for disruption. Healthcare - why is it so damn hard to get an instant, cheap medical opinion on a non-urgent but still worrying issue if you don't have a doctor in the family? Apartment rental (for both owners and tenants).
The hard part is not telling whether or not something is a good idea. It's evaluating whether or not the team can pull it off.