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What's going on with their SWE bench graph?[0]

GPT-5 non-thinking is labeled 52.8% accuracy, but o3 is shown as a much shorter bar, yet it's labeled 69.1%. And 4o is an identical bar to o3, but it's labeled 30.8%...

[0] https://i.postimg.cc/DzkZZLry/y-axis.png



As someone who spent years quadruple checking every figure in every slide for years to avoid a mistake like this, it’s very confusing to see this out of the big launch announcement of one of the most high profile startups around.

Even the small presentations we gave to execs or the board were checked for errors so many times that nothing could possibly slip through.


It's literally a billion dollar plus release. I get more scrutiny on my presentations to groups of 10 people.


I take a strange comfort in still spotting AI typos. Makes it obvious their shiny new "toy" isn't ready to replace professionals.

They talk about using this to help families facing a cancer diagnosis -- literal life or death! -- and we're supposed to trust a machine that can't even spot a few simple typos? Ha.

The lack of human proofreading says more about their values than their capabilities. They don't want oversight -- especially not from human professionals.


Cynically, the AI is ready to replace professionals, in areas where the stakeholders don't care too much. They can offer the services cheaper, and this is all that matters to their customers. Were it not so, companies like Tata won't have any customers. The phenomenon of "cheap Chinese junk" would not exist, because no retailer would order to produce it.

So, brace yourselves, we'll see more of this in production :(


Does something where you don't care about quality this much need doing at all?


Well, the world will split into those who care, and fields where precision is crucial, and the rest. Occasional mistakes are tolerable but systematic bullshit is a bit too much for me.


This separation (always a spectrum, not a split) already exists for a long time. Bouts of systemic bullshit occur every now and then, known as "bubbles" (as in dotcom bubble, mortgage bubble, etc) or "crises" (such as "reproducibility crisis", etc). Smaller waves rise and fall all the time, in the form of various scams (from the ancient tulip mania to Ponzi to Madoff to ICOs, etc).

It seems like large amounts of people, including people at high-up positions, tend to believe bullshit, as long as it makes them feel comfortable. This leads to various irrational business fashions and technological fads, to say nothing of political movements.

So yes, another wave of fashion, another miracle that works "as everybody knows" would fit right in. It's sad because bubbles inevitably burst, and that may slow down or even destroy some of the good parts, the real advances that ML is bringing.


Yes this is quite shocking. They could have just had o3 fact check the slides and it would have noticed...


I thought so too, but I gave it a screenshot with the prompt:

> good plot for my presentation?

and it didn't pick up on the issue. Part of its response was:

> Clear metric: Y-axis (“Accuracy (%), pass @1”) and numeric labels make the performance gaps explicit.

I think visual reasoning is still pretty far from text-only reasoning.


o3 did fact check the slides and it fixed its lower score.


They let the AI make the bars.


Vibegraphing.


Stable diffusion is good for this!


and then check.


Well, clearly they didn’t


Probably generated with GPT-5


The needle now presses a little deeper into the bubble.


I think this just further demonstrates the truth behind the truly small & scrappy teams culture at OpenAI that an ex-employee recently shared [1].

Even with the way the presenters talk, you can sort of see that OAI prioritizes speed above most other things, and a naive observer might think they are testing things a million different ways before releasing, but actually, they're not.

If we draw up a 2x2 for Danger (High/Low) versus Publicity (High/Low), it seems to me that OpenAI sure has a lot of hits in the Low-Danger High-Publicity quadrant, but probably also a good number in the High-Danger Low-Publicity quadrant -- extrapolating purely from the sheer capability of these models and the continuing ability of researchers like Pliny to crack through it still.

[1] https://calv.info/openai-reflections


I don't think they give a shit. This is a sales presentation to the general public and the correct data is there. If one is pedantic enough they can see the correct number, if not it sells well. If they really cared grok etc. Would be on there too.


The opposite view is to show your execs the middle finger on nitpicking. Their product is definitely not more important than ChatGPT-5. So your typo does not matter. It didn't ever matter.


It is not mistake. It is common tactic to make illusion of improvement.


Would they risk such an obvious blunder and being ridiculed for being "AI-sloppy"? I don't believe it.


I don’t believe for mistake either. As others have said, these graphs are worth of billions. Everything is calculated. They take the risk that some will notice but most will not. They say that it is mistake for those who notice.


Perhaps they're taking a leaf from nvidias book - influencers dunking on their bar charts gives a lot of free press coverage/mindshare


I've seen that sentiment on reddit as well and I can't phantom how you think it being on purpose is more likely than a mistake when

1 - The error is so blatantly large

2 - There is a graph without error right next to it

3 - The errors are not there in the system card and the presentation page


Not sure what to think anymore https://www.vibechart.net/


It wouldnt have taken years of quadruple checks to spot that one.


Possibly they rushed to bring forward the release annoucement


It's not a mistake. It's meant to misled.


Humans hallucinate output all the time.


Not as much as current llms. But the point is that AIs are supposed to be better than us, kind of how people built calculators to be more reliable than the average person and faster than anyone.


I'm just going to wildly speculate.

1. They had many teams who had to put their things on a shared Google Sheets or similar

2. They used placeholders to prevent leaks

2.a. Some teams put their content just-in-time

3. The person running the presentation started the presentation view once they had set up video etc. just before launching stream

4. Other teams corrected their content

5. The presentation view being started means that only the ones in 2.a were correct.

Now we wait to see.


6. (Occam's Razor) It just didn't perform that well in trials for that specific eval.


That is obviously wrong since the numbers are right but the graph is wrong and you can see it correct on the website…


Also, what's this??? https://imgur.com/a/5CF34M6


Imgur is down, hug of death from screenshot links on HN.

  {"data":{"error":"Imgur is temporarily over capacity. Please try again later."},"success":false,"status":403}
Or rate limited.


This is what Imgur shows to blacklisted IPs. You probably have a VPN on that is blocked.


Ugh, why lie to users... Just say the IP is blacklisted.

Thanks for the tip btw.


Because when you know it’s blacklisted you might try with a different IP, whereas if you don’t you will just wait (forever).


Imagine we wouldn't tell criminals the law because they might try to find holes... This is just user-hostile and security through obscurity. If someone on HN knows that this is what is shown to banned people then so will the people that scrape or mean harm to imgur


In a world where we couldn't arrest criminals, only keep track of them in a log book, yeah that's probably exactly what we'd do


There’s no law here, just someone trying to protect their website.



Lol this is pure vibegraphing!


stats say this image got 500 views. imgur is much much more populated than HN


In 2015, yes. In 2025? Probably not. Imgur is enshittifying rapidly since reddit started it's own image host. Lots of censorship and corporate gentrification. There's still some hangers on but it's a small group. 15 comments on imgur is a lot nowadays.


Not GPT-5 trying to deceive us about how deceptive it is?


Why would you think it is anything special? Just because Sam Altman said so? The same guy who told us he was scared of releasing GPT-2.5 but now calling its abilities "toddler/kindergarten" level?


My comment was mostly a joke. I don't think there's anything "special" about GPT-5.

But these models have exhibited a few surprising emergent traits, and it seems plausible to me that at one point they could intentionally deceive users in the course of exploring their boundaries.

Is it that far fetched?


There is no intent, nor is there a mechanism for intent. They don't do long term planning nor do they alter themselves due to things they go through during inference. Therefore there cannot be intentional deception they partake in. The system may generate a body of text that a human reader may attribute to deceptiveness but there is no intent.


> There is no intent

I'm not an ML engineer - is there an accepted definition of "intent" that you're using here? To me, it seems as though these GPT models show something akin to intent, even if it's just their chain of thought about how they will go about answering a question.

> nor is there a mechanism for intent

Does there have to be a dedicated mechanism for intent for it to exist? I don't see how one could conclusively say that it can't be an emergent trait.

> They don't do long term planning nor do they alter themselves due to things they go through during inference.

I don't understand why either of these would be required. These models do some amount of short-to-medium term planning even it is in the context of their responses, no?

To be clear, I don't think the current-gen models are at a level to intentionally deceive without being instructed to. But I could see us getting there within my lifetime.


If you were one of the very first people to see an LLM in action, even a crappy one, and you didn't have second thoughts about what you were doing and how far things were going to go, what would that say about you?


It is just dishonest rhetoric no matter what. He is the most insincere guy in the industry, somehow manages to come off even less sincere than the lawnmower Larry Ellison. At least that guy is honest about not having any morals.


Deception - guessing it's % of responses that deceived the user / gave misleading information


Sure, but 50.0 > 47.4...


Oh man... didn't even notice. I've been deceived. That's bad.


In everything except the first set of bars, bigger bar == bigger number.

But also scale is really off... I don't think anything here is proportionally correct even within the same grouping.


GPT-5 generated the chart


Best answer on this page.

Thanks for the laugh. I needed it.


Must be some sort of typo type thing in the presentation since the launch site has it correct here https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/#:~:text=Accuracy...

Look at the image just above "Instruction following and agentic tool use"


They vibecharted


This reminds me of the agent demo's MLB stadium map from a few weeks ago: https://youtu.be/1jn_RpbPbEc?t=1435 (at timestamp)

Completely bonkers stuff.



New term of art :)


stable diffusion is great for this!


The barplot is wrong, the numbers are correct. Looks like they had a dummy plot and never updated it, only the numbers to prevent leaking?

Screenshot of the blog plot: https://imgur.com/a/HAxIIdC


Haha, even with that, it says 4o does worse with 2 passes than with 1.

Edit: Nevermind, just now the first one is SWE-bench and 2nd is aider.


Those are different benchmarks


I see now on the website, the screenshot cut off the header for the first benchmark, looked like it was just comparing 1-pass and 2-pass.


Yes, sorry didn't fit everything on the screenshot.


Wow imgur has gone to shit. I open the image on mobile and then try to zoom it and bam some other “related content” is opened…!


Yeah it’s basically unusable now


That's been an issue for years. Their swipe detection is completely broken.


cross-posting:

https://x.com/sama/status/1953513280594751495 "wow a mega chart screwup from us earlier--wen GPT-6?! correct on the blog though."

blog: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-5/


(whispers) they're bullshit artists

It's like those idiotic ads at the end of news articles. They're not going after you, the smart discerning logician, they're going after the kind of people that don't see a problem. There are a lot of not-smart people and their money is just as good as yours but easier to get.


Exactly this, but it will still be a net negative for all of us. Why? Increasingly I have to argue with non-technical geniuses who have "checked" some complex technical issue with ChatGPT, they themselves lacking even the basic foundations in computer science. So you have an ever increasing number of smartasses who think that this technology finally empowers them. Finally they get "level up" with that arrogant techie. And this will ultimately doom us, because as we know, idiots are in majority and they often overrule the few sane voices.


Sounds like a graph that was generated via AI. :)


Don't ask questions, just consume product.


also wondering this. had to pause the livestream to make sure i wasnt crazy. definitely eyebrow raising


"GPT-5, please generate a slideshow for your launch presentation."


"Dang it! Claude!, please ..."


it looks like the 2nd and 3rd bar never got updated from the dummy data placeholders lol.


someone copy pasted the 3rd bar to the 2nd


Probably generated by an LLM


Tufte used to call this creating a "visual lie" - you just don't start the y-axis at 0, you start it wherever, in order to maximize the difference. it's dishonest.


52 above 60 seems wrong whatever way you put it


AGI is launching, lets complain about the charts


Any time now




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