The US is gearing up for a China conflict, there is a split between the prep for war with China now or sort out Iran first and then prep for war with China. It’s currently most obvious in the MAGA split but the dems are captured as well. AOC is signaling she’ll play ball in what I assume is prep for a presidential run.
Like most voters I’m anti-war but people tend not to get what they vote for in important matters like that.
The US will not permit the EU to sit on the sidelines.
By 2027, the EU will be too busy fighting Russia to help much with China.
Meanwhile the US has far too little independent industrial manufacturing left. All of its super-expensive weapons systems need components and raw materials - especially rare earths - imported from China.
The US has a huge stockpile of weapons which are incredibly vulnerable to sneak drone attacks.
It has neither the talent, the resources, nor the industrial capacity to build replacements quickly at scale, never mind mass produce the drone swarm armies that will win the next war.
I'm not a huge fan of empires, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see China become the sole remaining superpower within ten years - before starting its own inevitable decay into corruption and psychopathy.
I try to explain to people the absolute absurd state of affairs that refined high quality goods are often cheaper from China than it is to import the raw materials. Our financialized economy is dependent on cheep Chinese goods and dodgy accounting practices.
The EU-Russia and US-China would be of the same broader conflict. Both the US and China are corrupt but at least in a China the politicians are the owners so they can more easily act in their own interest (less agency cost), the US has a competing oligarchy which leads to looting. There is a right-wing CIA cutout Theilverse faction putting together a bit of a coup and I guess once they are in control the plan is to use Anduril, Palantir, and PMCs to end the looting and create a parallel system of governance / military. I don’t know if that’ll be enough to keep US hegemony, but given the options I guess they’ll think they have to try.
China is very much incentivized to wait which we are told we should interpret as weakness. I think being able to take the hits and wait for more advantageous circumstance is a sign of strength. We’re told that the fact that neither Russia, China, or Pakistan will give Iran nuclear weapons is a sign that they are scared, I think that ignores the fact that these conflicts are serving their goal of wearing down the west. If they succeed they might win WWIII without much of a fight.
Like most voters I’m anti-war but people tend not to get what they vote for in important matters like that.
The US will not permit the EU to sit on the sidelines.