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Economists have no humility.

When the real-world disproves the models of a physicist, the physicist proclaims he has assumed some variables, or maybe the model doesn't apply at all. Newtonian physics, which is very real and constantly "proven" in the real world, doesn't work at a quantum level.

When the real-world disproves the models of an economist, the economist proclaims we must be living in an alternate reality.

How many variables are influencing the US economy right now? Trillions, I'd say, on the low end. Some aren't even measurable - like trust or happiness.

Did this economist track all these variables? Of course not. He assumed a value for 99% of them. He assumed so much he doesn't even know what he assumed.



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