I would guess that for the most part we won’t have “true” decentralization, but given the EU has mandated interoperability between big providers like Apple and Facebook I can imagine that we will eventually have major services that are EU centric (either in certain markets or most/all of the EU), and there will be ways for people to use their own setup as well (basically multi polar distribution, plus the ability for someone to do it themselves).
> I can imagine that we will eventually have major services that are EU centric
I work in a research project in a EU country that looks at how educational certificates (diploma's, degrees, credentials) will be done in the future.
A big part of it, are requirements and frameworks imposed, dictated or assumed by governments, commissions, universities, etc. The most important¹ parts of these requirements are:
- it must be self-sovereign. Not decentralized per-se, but technically often one step further than decentralized. My diploma, in my wallet (mobile?) is mine. I hold it, I am free to share it, delete it, copy it.
- it must be separated from the issuers. A person getting a degree might outlive a university, high school, or their servers/services.
- it must be privacy preserving - GDPR and better.
These constraints tell me that the EU, and EC are serious about decentralization and self-sovereign-identities. Which is very different from what local or current governments like and want - At least one EU government is in conflict with its universities and wants to be the gatekeeper of diploma's - they truly want the ability to deny or retract diploma's from people who they don't like.
Which, ironically, makes these constraints and requirements all the more important and critical in e.g. our projects. It went from a "decentralization is nice because in theory someone could..." to "decentralization is critical to ensure no-one, on any end of any political spectrum can take away diploma's as is currently being attempted".
(And for the curious: I work with W3C, openId, IETF and many more standards and -bodies. Verifiable Credentials, OpenBadges v3, OIDC4VCI, VP, etc)
¹ Edit: well, maybe not "most", as there isn't a clear prioritization. And obvious requirements such as "you cannot just fake a diploma" are probably higher in priority.
