If Taiwan didn’t give up on the US and start making alternative plans on Nov 7th, that was a huge mistake. The US has made it clear that not only is it abandoning traditional allies, it will likely side with any invading force that exercises the “might makes right” principle.
If the PRC should actually decide to invade, it is going to be extremely difficult to hold that off on their own for an extended period of time. Which means they need allies who can rapidly deploy a sufficiently large force to stabilise the situation.
But the only way to get there is with a naval force, and air supremacy would likely be critical to the outcome of that fight, which means you need someone with a large carrier fleet, and that is pretty much a pool of one.
Without US help, there is very little hope that Taiwan would not be overrun sooner or later. Their only real hope would be a nuclear weapons programme that would allow them to credibly threaten to nuke Beijing if invaded. But the PRC would never let it get that far and would make sure to strike before that could be completed.
Certainly ultra-secret nuclear program makes sense. Perhaps working with another country with development abroad so there is nowhere directly related for China to strike in Taiwan (the calculus for “we attacked a weapons development facility in Taiwan” is different from “we attacked Taiwan because they are participating in weapons development in the Philippines)
Probably also increased military and economic ties to South Korea and Australia, and an effort to build a NATO of the area, absent the US, perhaps under ASEAN. Or something new.
It’s a tough problem but it’s a real problem and I don’t see how Taiwan could ever go back to trusting the US to defend democracies facing invasion.
There is a trivial alternative that military strategists have been suggesting for decades. For a nation of 20+ M, having a reservist army of 1M would be feasible and make the island impossible to invade even if the rest of Earth would join forces to do that.
1) Trump might be alienating his traditional allies and cosying up to Russia, but he still apparently sees China as a problem or adversary.
2) Thinking purely transactionally, the US is very dependent on Tiawan due to TSMC. Most of the US' largest tech companies are investing heavily in AI hardware (TSMC chips) and/or rely directly on TSMC for their own supply chain. I have no idea whether Trump et al see it this way, or this would be enough to trigger the US to protect Tiawan, but transactionally, it's immeasurably more valuable to the US than Ukraine.
> 1) Trump might be alienating his traditional allies and cosying up to Russia, but he still apparently sees China as a problem or adversary.
That's not a guarantee at all. The only thing he's every been honest, consistent and truthful about is that nothing is sacred, everything's on sale, no values (economic, patriotic, environmental, political) will stand in the way of his own profit, there's always the willingness to make a deal and sell something (someone) off, and fuck the consequences, no matter how gigantic, embarrassing, and suicidally bad they are. Negative-sum deals are absolutely on the table as long as he comes out richer or more powerful.
China just needs to make a good offer and Taiwan's fucked when it comes to Trump's support.
Sure, but I'm imagining a situation where China ensures the ongoing operations of TSMC via negotation with TSMC and the Trump government, to the satisfaction of all parties, and then being 'allowed' to take Tiawan as a result. For example, they could allow TSMC to function as an American-run entity for a number of years, or offer US companies very friendly terms, or something similar.
This doesn't account for the actions of Tiawanese nationalists working in TSMC setting off the kill routine themselves, irrespective of the deal struck, but it's still an interesting scenario.
Don't listen to what politician say, watch what they do, to be fair his decisions were very anti-china, I mean, maybe it going to backfire, but it was anti-chine in it's principle
He’s too erratic to take any past behavior as evidence of the future. If he breaks promises to a bunch of allies, no other ally should feel safe because he hasn’t broken theirs yet.
All it would take for a pro-China pivot is the right leverage. Cash, blackmail, who knows. But it’s just a matter of whether the price is met, not whether the deal is available.
Certain political factions* in Taiwan should be worried.
The actual Taiwanese people are breathing a sigh of relief that they are increasingly avoiding the "primrose path" of Ukraine: Catastrophic death and destruction based on lies, marginally enriching foreign countries and a corrupt domestic elite.
The idea I think was that China would also rather not engage in a hot war with the US over it, and therefore would be content with the status quo (or at least content to wait for a favorable political climate in the US...).
USA had two military alliances of central importance, one with Germany, one with Japan.
The first is to keep Russia in check, the second China.
The rumours of a carve-up, spheres of influence, begin to resonate.
Problem is, you cannot run a country as if it were a business, because to do is to value influence and power above freedom, human dignity, and human suffering.
Japan’s constitution and postwar treaties with the United States constrain their ability to rearm and use military force. Those need to be amended and renegotiated in order for Japan to be an effective ally in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan’s been asking for a change in the status quo for years. Trump is signaling not only a willingness to encourage Japanese rearmament, but a willingness to sell it to the American people in terms of their own interests.
And frankly I wouldn’t be surprised if the same weren’t true of Europe as well. Ever since at least the Obama administration, the US has been begging Europe to increase their defense spending. Aside from Poland, none of them have done so. That might be changing now. Europe didn’t rearm when Obama (whom you actually liked) asked nicely. Getting to sneer at Trump and the United States is a much more effective permission structure. And then the next time we elect a Democrat, Western Europe will give him a Nobel peace prize and pretend the whole thing never happened, just like the last time.
