I think it is increasingly clear that Europe, Canada, the UK, and other Western liberal democracies are laying the groundwork for a new strategic direction, one where the United States is no longer viewed as a dependable superpower or a guaranteed partner.
This does not mean the US will be written off entirely, at least not in the foreseeable future. However, the era in which the US could dictate the global agenda, particularly in Europe, appears to be coming to an end. A recent example is the US Vice President’s speech in Germany, followed by meetings with the AfD rather than the German Chancellor - an unmistakable signal that Washington no longer prioritizes its European allies in the same way.
A similar shift may be seen in the area of technology. Reliance on American tech companies and investments is likely to decrease, with governments and businesses seeking alternatives. Even China could play a role in this transition, despite the security risks it presents. Economic growth depends on global trade, and many nations may be unwilling to let US protectionism dictate their technological and economic choices.
It is an unexpected turn, but in hindsight, one we could have seen coming. The transformation of the US Republican Party, coupled with growing public support for politicians who embrace extreme rhetoric, reject objective facts, and show little respect for science or democratic principles, has reshaped the country’s global standing. Many of these figures claim to uphold democracy but, from an outside perspective, promote an increasingly authoritarian vision through their policies and rhetoric.
Ultimately, it is up to the American people to choose their government and shape their society. However, the US has become increasingly unstable and polarized, straying from both common sense and the ideals of a liberal democracy. As this internal turmoil continues, it is no surprise that its traditional allies are beginning to seek a future less dependent on American leadership.
It really does feel like this is the end of the US as the dominating super power and world police.
Who wants to buy weapons from the US when you won't get permission to use them to defend themselves?
Who wants to make deals with the US when they will just get torn up and the US will even threaten their allies with economic sanctions and even invasion?
Who in their right mind will lean on the US to protect them, when they're showing how incompetent and unreliable they are?
> Will this term be the end of the craziness or is this the end of the US as a super power?
No Democrat could ever say we need to spend more money on foreign aid, rebuild the CFPB, or do anything that is seen to be spending taxpayer money to help poor people either domestic or abroad.
The Republican Party seems like it will be populist at least for a generation. No traditional Republican could ever win a primary today. Reagan himself would be called a RINO today.
France has spent half a century being like “Look at me, I can offer nuclear umbrella, and also sell modern weapons, who need the crazy US when you can have me”, and is finally hoping to score !
yes, France has won a lot of wars. France and England basically divided most of the world between themselves at one point. Germany being a distant runner up.
But on the other hand Groundskeeper Willie on The Simpsons said a funny thing one time so Americans now think they must be wimps.
It is a whole lot more complicated than a Simpsons joke. While it is still pretty much completely unwarranted, French bashing has been a thing that started way earlier in history. Check this Reddit thread for a well documented summary : https://www.reddit.com/r/AskHistorians/comments/vmkpr1/when_...
No, it's a joke about how Americans are so ignorant about history and the rest of the world that they form their worldview entirely based on memes and pop-culture references, and the Simpsons is where the phrase "cheese eating surrender-monkeys" came from.
Americans vaguely know from war movies that they capitulated to the Nazis and then the US (and the US alone, of course) had to come rescue them, and that they refused to participate in the US's illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003, which then led to a propaganda campaign against France, including Freedom Fries and other nonsense. (France absolutely did partake in the war in Afghanistan, deploying several thousand troops in 2001, so nobody can say they didn't come to aid when requested.)
You mean the cultural war between Britain and France that lasted hundreds of years? Yeah pretty sure the Anglo world won that one. Since you are writing in English in an internet forum and all
No, I meant the Norman conquest (conquête) in 1066, in which the English aristocracy (aristocratie) was replaced (remplacé) by French warlords, who kept speaking French until well in the 14th century, and changed the English language (langue) beyond recognition (reconnaissance), to the extent that Dutch or Scandinavian speakers find it easier to understand Old English than English ones do.
You might view the Hundred Year War as quarrels (querelles) of different (différent) branches (branches) of the French aristocracy.
Therefore, the current (courant) Anglo-Saxon hegemony (hégémonie) has its roots in France.
The most obvious one was mostly build to get rid of visa and mastercard (and for a part of the immigrated population, Alipay and other "services" to transfer money externally), it's called the EPI and it has been in the works for a while, but i assure you that if Musk threaten a big enough european company, that shit will be ready in a month at worst.
There are many in the US who have a particular strand of thinking. It goes a bit like this:
The US is meddling too much in other country's affairs.
Only a handful of countries actually have agency - US, Russia, China mostly.
All the wars out there are actually proxy wars, because the US is up to no good and interfering with one of the other countries with agency.
It follows that all that is required for global peace is to withdraw US support for foreign adventuring.
America looks after America, Russia looks after (extended) Russia. The more isolationist a country is, the better it is. Hungary is a better friend than the UK because it opposes American adventuring, just like us.
There are other elements of the logic. America interferes abroad for cynical reasons. In Afghanistan, it was the poppies. In Iraq, it was the oil.
They scratched their head a little over Ukraine, but then decided it was for rare earth minerals.
I don't know if it's the end of the US as superpower, but what Musk is doing is destroying US state capacity from within, and what Trump's representatives are doing are destroying US influence abroad. If the goal is ending the US as a superpower, the actions are certainly shaped in a way that look like they're trying to end it.
Yet Canada should be the 51st state, Panama canal should be owned by the US, Greenland should be turned over to the US, Ukraine should just sign over 500B of rare earth mineral rights to US for nothing in return. Its not the end of US meddling, its the start of becoming an outright and corrupt bully without the thin veneer of democratic good guys they've tried to project before.
I actually have been speculating since Trump 1 on whether Europe would eventually join the Chinese block.
On the one side, we (now) have Trump both threatening Europe with the potential of an invasion of Groenland, and explicitly telling Russia that it won't intervene if Putin bombs Europe, so if I were a European leader, I'd be looking for allies.
On the other side, we have China and Europe being the two powers who actually pay a little bit more than lip service to long-term thinking, in particular the future of the planet, while Trump is explicitly saying f*ck to the environment.
Yes, there are countless divergences between China and Europe, in addition to competiton. But we've seen stranger bedfellows.
It's crazy how Trump is making China look like a good partner. At least they would be reliable and predictable to large extent.
The human rights violations and ambitions to grab Taiwan are obviously worrying. Europe may need to give up on the ideal of promoting human rights, democracy and peace, and just be happy to be able to preserve them at home.
> Has the rest of the democratic world been making plans to reduce reliance on the US since the first Trump administration?
Plans were already being drafted before Trump won the election, given his strong polling, but bureaucracy makes things move a little slow. I think it has united EU countries who understand that this over-reliance on the US can be problematic given how quickly policies can shift, and will lead to a stronger EU.
The NATO framework is there and all countries part of it can keep following it to work together even without the US, and regardless of the memes, EU countries have a very advanced arsenal and lots of trained military personnel - with Russia struggling against one country, it's hard to believe they can ever make a move against 27 EU states, especially due to historical bad blood between many of them and Russia, which only serve to amplify the desire to stand up against them.
> Will this term be the end of the craziness or is this the end of the US as a super power?
I think it's a correction we've been due for a while, especially with the rise in extremist parties in recent years all across the world. Whether things will reseat themselves smoothly or whether we'll be in for a rough ride, it's hard to say.
If the current trend keeps going in the next few years with the US becoming more isolationist, I think it will be almost impossible for them to comeback to being a superpower even with a future president that wants to do a 180, as it takes more than nukes to be a superpower.
My fear is not that Russia and allies will fight a giant land war with all of Europe. It is that Putin will continue moving his lukachenko and viktor orban pieces and acquire new ones through out Europe that will effectively make Europe reliant on russia and in some ways controlled by Russia. They don’t need to own everything to control everything.
This push has been ongoing for year and the success has definitely been less than expected, with Finland and Sweden joining NATO. I think with the Americans stepping back, this will only strengthen ties between EU countries, though there still are issues which have to be solved on the energy sector to reduce reliance on Russia.
People only look at the state of Ukraine and think that because Russia didn't steam roll them things aren't working. I feel like it is quite successful. The previous status quo has been disrupted. America has gone crazy and retreated from Europe. This followed Brexit. And Russia has been successful at stealing Ukrainian resources, for example, Bellingcat was able to track approximately 3 billion dollars in stolen grain sales that Russia sold to places like Egypt. Is that how we want the world to work? You can take what you want by force and then sell it to the highest bidder? And now America pushes for Ukraine to give up lands? Do we believe it's okay to attack your neighbors to steal their stuff? Why is any of this acceptable? It is not a negotiation to say, "what is yours is now mine but I will give back some of it if you stop trying to fight to keep all of it."
Will this term be the end of the craziness or is this the end of the US as a super power?