This is assuming that new technology will grow the same as in pre-LLM times, and merely be picked up a year late. But use of LLMs is likely to cause new developments to grow and spread slower, because of the reduced visibility. It may take much longer for a new development to gain currency to the extent that it becomes sufficiently visible in the training data. This also slows competition between evolving technologies.

In addition, as the article describes, the LLM services have biases built in to them even among existing technologies. It amplifies existing preferences, leading to less diversity and competition between technologies. Tech leads will have to weigh between the qualities of a technology on its own merits against how well it is supported by an LLM.