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Yah, I'm well familiar with the base rate fallacy and I still catch myself screwing it up. It's so unintuitive. I use mental math a lot to counter my intuition.

If sensitivity is high and the base rate is low, you can approximate it with .01 / (1-.91).

Or, mental math assuming 10,000 people is not unreasonable for your case (100 with disease, 90 true positives; 9900 * 9/100 false positives.. divide everything by 9 to make it easier, 10 true positives and 99 false positives, or 10/109 or say "9%".



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