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My personal and probably not unique prediction is that these people will be let go and not be paid - same thing he did with twitter.


There are some pretty significant differences between Twitter employees and federal government employees, starting with the fact that a lot of latter group are part of a powerful union.


Let's see what happens. At this point, I'm not convinced the union has any leverage.


The federal employee unions have incredible power, often to the detriment of the government.


That power comes from the idea that the federal employees can shut down government operations if they stop working. This administration (supposedly) wants dearly to shut down government operations, so the union doesn't have any power.


Federal employees are not permitted to strike. See 5 USC § 7311.


Federal employees are not allowed to strike


Confidently incorrect. Federal employees marked as "mission critical" cannot strike, but other federal employees can. Unions take this into account and have workers strike on-behalf of mission critical employees.


5 U.S.C. §7311


Nobody can stop them


Didn't President Reagan fire almost every air traffic controller in thr 80s? Weren't they unionized as well?

My understanding is that the consequences of that decision is being felt even to this day. I only know about it because of the recent airplane accident


Pretty sure they will just executive order the unions are void, Congress won't do a thing and the courts may get to it in 3 decades.


What good is a lawsuit if He decides to ignore it and not pay? One side of that battle is ultimately backed up by the military.


Military members are government employees. I imagine they would be extremely circumspect of being deployed against other government employees who were cheated by a bad-faith deal.


There is no "they". The military adheres to the law for only as long as those laws are enforced. If the US military can commit war crimes abroad and be protected from outside prosecution, there is nothing stopping them from doing the same inside the US. All it takes is for one person in charge to ignore charges in a military court, or simply not comply with a legal summons in civilian court.

Look at how the US treats the International Criminal Court today, a legal body it itself helped create after WWII. Not a huge leap to think they will ignore state courts in the US. Who's going to arrest them?


“I’m just following orders” has been a successful moral defense for centuries. I wouldn’t bet on it losing its effectiveness this time.


That rides on the assumption that there's considerable sympathy for them solely for the reason of checks coming from the same source.

Having spent most of my life surrounded by military dudes, they support other military dudes. But they very much do not support anybody in DC.


> I imagine they would be extremely circumspect of being deployed against other government employees who were cheated by a bad-faith deal

Why would they be?


Because the paychecks come from the same place. If your boss publicly cheated your coworker and then sent the mob to break his kneecaps for protesting, wouldn't that concern you? For purely selfish reasons if nothing else.


I doubt that kind of characterization would be accepted. My expectation is that there would be some reasoning used to justify withholding the funds.


Which side?


Like I said, at this point I'm not convinced they have any leverage.


Sure, but even in a normal situation, all the Union can do is provide greater resources to initiate legal and possibly work actions. Which, in a normal situation might be very effective.

This is NOT anything resembling a normal situation; to treat it as such is merely an exercise in normalcy bias.

Under an authoritarian regime, as is being setup as we type, legal actions are irrelevant as the judicial and legislative branches lose independence and serve the executive. Work actions likely result in the union being decertified and dissolved.


They are part of a union (actually, different unions, plural). But none of those unions are among the more powerful unions.


patco was also a powerful union. Trump has already declared he will nullify the AFGE contract (legality be damned).


Yeah well some dude from South Africa is running around in government buildings fucking with computers and no one seems to be doing anything about it. Anything goes these days. Union or not.


I think they'd "like" to, but he legal protections for the employees in this case are vast compared to twitter. But as an employee, I would worry that they would try... we already have an administration that SCOTUS has decided is above the law in other ways.


It is worth looking back at President Musk's previous actions here. I know the twitter engineers sued. Was it ever settled?


It appears most of those claims went to arbitration, so we are unlikely to learn results…

https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/most-lawsuit-over-m...


To make that blanket statement about twitter layoffs is just blatantly not true


Which part isn't true?




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