Having also worked on desks in the 00s and early 10s I think a big difference here is what trading meant really changed; much of what traders did went away with innovations in speed. Speed and algos became the way to trade neither of which humans can do. While SWE became significantly more important on trading desks, you still have researchers, quants, portfolio analysts, etc. that spend their working days developing new algos, new market opportunities, ways to minimize TCOS, etc.
That being said, there's also a massive low hanging fruit in dev work that we'll automate away, and I feel like that's coming sooner rather than later, yes even though we've been saying that for decades. However, I bet that the incumbents (Senior SWE) have a bit longer of a runway and potentially their economic rent increases as they're able to be more efficient, and companies need not hire as many humans as they needed before. Will be an interesting go these next few decades.
> That being said, there's also a massive low hanging fruit in dev work that we'll automate away
And this has been solve for years already with existing tooling. Debuggers, Intellisense, Linters, Snippets and other code generations tools, build systems, Framework Specific tooling.... There's a lot of tools for writing and maintaining code. The only thing left was always the understanding of the system that solves the problem and knowledge of the tools to build it. And I don't believe we can automate this away. Using LLMs is like riding a drugged donkey instead of a motorbike. It can only work for very short distances or the thrill.
In any long lived project, most modifications are only a few lines of codes. The most valuable thing is the knowledge of where and how to edit. Not the ability to write 400 lines of code in 5 seconds.
"And now, at the end of 2024, I’m finally seeing incredible results in the field, things that looked like sci-fi a few years ago are now possible: Claude AI is my reasoning / editor / coding partner lately. I’m able to accomplish a lot more than I was able to do in the past. I often do more work because of AI, but I do better work."
"AI didn’t replace me, AI accelerated me or improved me with feedback about my work"
This really sums up how I feel about AI at the moment. It's like having a partner who has broad knowledge about anything that you can ask any stupid questions to. If you don't want to do a small boring task you can hand it off to them. It lets you focus on the important stuff, not "whats the option in this library called to do this thing that I can describe but don't know the exact name for?".
If you aren't taking advantage of that, then yes, you are probably going to be replaced. It's like when version control became popular in the 00s, where some people and companies still held out in their old way of doing things, copying and pasting folders or whatever other nasty workflows the had, because $reasons... where the only real reason was that they didn't want to adapt to the new paradigm.
This actually surfaces a much more likely scenario: That it's not our jobs that are automated, but a designed-from-scratch automated sw/eng job that just replaces our jobs because it's faster and better. It's quite possible all our thinking is just required because we can only write one prototype at a time. If you could generate 10 attempts / day, until you have a stakeholder say "good enough", you wouldn't need much in the way of requirements, testing, thinking, design, etc.
But like so much of this thread “we can do this already without AI, if we wanted”
Want to try 5/10 different approaches a day? Fine - get your best stakeholders and your best devs and lock them in a room on the top floor and throw in pizza every so often.
Projects take a long time because we allow them to. (NB this is not same as setting tight deadlines, this is having a preponderance of force on the side of our side
That being said, there's also a massive low hanging fruit in dev work that we'll automate away, and I feel like that's coming sooner rather than later, yes even though we've been saying that for decades. However, I bet that the incumbents (Senior SWE) have a bit longer of a runway and potentially their economic rent increases as they're able to be more efficient, and companies need not hire as many humans as they needed before. Will be an interesting go these next few decades.