> You don't need to be certain that it isn't; you just need to be sure enough that the expected value of taking the new job, minus whatever risk discounting you're choosing to use, (minus the cost of searching for one), is greater than the expected value of staying in your current job.
Agreed. And what I'm saying is that people aren't looking because the job interview process provides little enough information that the expected value of job hopping right now is very unlikely to exceed the expected value of staying put unless they're already in a bad situation. The time spent fielding phone screens and interviews isn't worth it if you already know that even a seemingly dream job wouldn't be worth the risk right now.
In another, more certain environment with lower risk of long-term unemployment the calculus is different, but right now sticking with the devil you know is for most of us the most rational move until the layoffs slow down.
The other thing I see is that people nearish retirement age and are comfortable, who might have cruised on for a few years, are pretty much going: now is probably the time. Maybe do some consulting though that's tight right now. So, maybe not optimal, but why stay in a non-ideal situation?
Agreed. And what I'm saying is that people aren't looking because the job interview process provides little enough information that the expected value of job hopping right now is very unlikely to exceed the expected value of staying put unless they're already in a bad situation. The time spent fielding phone screens and interviews isn't worth it if you already know that even a seemingly dream job wouldn't be worth the risk right now.
In another, more certain environment with lower risk of long-term unemployment the calculus is different, but right now sticking with the devil you know is for most of us the most rational move until the layoffs slow down.