Nintendo is practically in a different market anyway. People who want a Nintendo console are mostly looking for Nintendo’s first-party characters. Lumping them in with Xbox and PlayStation is like combining Barbie and GI Joe under “dolls.” Technically correct but not very descriptive.
Snark: Nintendo’s market is kids, people with kids, and people who were previously kids. Xbox and PlayStation are fighting over the market of people who’d be better served by a PC but don’t want to deal with all that. /Snark
I don't disagree that Nintendo appeals to a market that the others don't, and vice versa, but I'd be surprised if there wasn't a significant number of people who will reliably buy a game console, but won't buy two consoles.
That is to say, I still think there's significant competition for sales.
And if Nintendo didn't exist, it would be easier for Sony and Microsoft to take in the market for cute, whimsical, child-friendly, instead of having to distinguish themselves by being the more serious or more powerful option.
And handhelds; Nintendo has more or less stolen that entire segment, Steam Deck still being relatively niche and PS Portal being a different kind of thing. Sony's handheld ambitions are moribund and not for lack of trying.
The target market for Xbox/PlayStation are the kind of gamers that play games like Call of Duty, Gran Turismo/Forza, Elden Ring/Dark Souls/The Witcher, or FIFA/Madden/NBA2k.
The target market for the Switch are people who play Animal Crossing, Super Mario Galaxy, and Zelda games.
There's some amount of crossover there, but there's also a large amount of separation in those markets. I know lots of people who play a ton of Animal Crossing and Zelda but would never want to play something like Borderlands or CoD or Darksouls.
Don't disagree with that, but I disagree that the conclusion to be made from it is that there's no significant competition.
Put another way, if Nintendo had a Sega-like market failure, then Sony and Microsoft would be the heirs apparent to the kingdom of cute. I'm sure they'd savor the opportunity. Do you think they wouldn't take these customers right now if they could?
And again, there's going to be a class of customers that could go either way but won't buy into two or more consoles, because they're expensive. They are directly competing for them.
I'm sure they'd savor the opportunity, but I don't know if they'd really be incredibly successful and picking most of those Nintendo-only gamers if Nintendo just disappeared. I imagine a good chunk of those people who bought a Switch almost exclusively for Animal Crossing would end up just becoming a mobile phone/tablet gamer instead of making the jump to Xbox/PlayStation.
But hey, the future is unknown, and my crystal ball is on the charger at the moment.
And there's gamers like myself, who mostly play games on PC but still have a Switch because while I can play a lot of those console games on my PC there's no offical way to play Zelda or Mario or the wide range of Nintendo first-party titles on PC. I think if Nintendo had a SEGA level implosion and started only being a publisher, whichever platforms Nintendo publishes for would become the heir to those consumers. I know that would be the case for me.
Assuming Nintendo steps away from the hardware biz, would they publish games exclusively to one console? Would they just start making mobile games? Would they sell on all consoles and PCs? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
> I'd be surprised if there wasn't a significant number of people who will reliably buy a game console, but won't buy two consoles.
As, what, an ornament? People buy games consoles to play games on (or occasionally for movies or some such), and I think very few of the games that people are buying a Switch to play are even available on Xbox/PS, nor vice versa (or at least, the Switch ports of the games that people buy Xbox/PS to play are not on a level where those people would buy a Switch to play them).
Implicitly, people who are too old (or too European) to have grown up with an NES.
But yeah, I 100% agree that the overwhelming draw of Nintendo consoles is their exclusives, so it's mostly orthogonal to Xbox/PS/PC. If you want to play Mario or Zelda or Pokemon or Fire Emblem, you've got one choice. The common idea that the Steam Deck is competing with the Switch is almost entirely wrong.
Snark: Nintendo’s market is kids, people with kids, and people who were previously kids. Xbox and PlayStation are fighting over the market of people who’d be better served by a PC but don’t want to deal with all that. /Snark