On the other hand, a drone doesn't need to be survivable. If a drone is shot down then all that's lost is a few million tax dollars, unlike a pilot or two if an F-35 or F/A-18 goes down. Drones are an expendable and consumable commodity.
A drone designed for aerial combat and dogfighting would also be inherently faster than any manned fighter. It doesn't need to account for the biological limitations of the pilot(s) which are far below the physical limitations of a fighter.
With regards to lack of self-sufficiency, no proficiency at aerial tasks (eg: refueling), et al., that's a question of when they will be satisfactorily solved given the continuing advances in computing power and the programs that execute on them.
This is where China will win. They can out-produce the United States and withhold the components the US needs to build the swarms. The US needs to wake up that it's supply chain and manufacturing is not self-sufficient and they're dependent on it's future competition (China already calls the US 'the enemy').
The U.S could do the future war trial in Ukraine. Such a missed opportunity…it’s clear that the heavy weapons packages are not enough. Taking out drones with patriot works against the economics of war.
Any future conflict between the US and China would look far, far different than the current invasion of Ukraine by Russia. In particular, the ranges are much longer in the Pacific theater of operations. Just look at a map. Small drones, tube artillery, and short-range missiles will be ineffective. There won't be as much ground combat. Both sides will have to rely more on naval forces, large aircraft (high fuel fraction plus aerial refueling), long-range missiles, and satellites.
> This is where China will win. They can out-produce the United States and withhold the components the US needs to build the swarms.
The US and allies can cut off or seriously curtail most of the raw materials required to run Chinese factories. China can stockpile raw materials but the US can stockpile Chinese sourced components. So that’s more like a Mexican standoff.
> The US needs to wake up that it's supply chain and manufacturing is not self-sufficient
Diversifying from Chinese production is happening albeit too slowly for comfort. The major problem isn’t the threat of war which may never happen, it’s China being unable to sustain its economy due to population collapse which is inevitable.
Here we go again. Every time this subject comes up, the dilettantes claim that drones will be superior to manned fighters for air-to-air combat due to human limitations on G forces. Of course this is total nonsense. Building airframes that can handle >9Gs imposes severe design compromises on weight, stores, and intake geometry. In reality there are other factors that matter far more including sensors (and sensor fusion), observability, weapons, data links, EW, and decoys; in fact, the next generation of tactical aircraft (both crewed and uncrewed) are being designed to optimize those factors at the expense of maneuverability.
Computing power isn't the issue. Drones will continue to gradually take over a larger set of missions, but we are at least decades away from being able to write software that can perform the full spectrum of missions as well as a human pilot. And we still haven't built electro-optical sensors with dynamic range and slew rate as good as the human eye.
I'll say it everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. The Secretary of the AF is already telling people his autonomous fighters are as good as his USAF pilots with ten years worth of flying. And they're not even planned to be operational until 2030.
>the dilettantes claim that drones will be superior to manned fighters for air-to-air combat due to human limitations on G forces.
I never claimed such a thing. I said drones designed for air combat will be faster because the upper limit will be dictated by physical limits of the airframe thereof instead of the biological limits of the human pilot(s).
Whether the faster drones would be superior is another question entirely.
Nonsense. Humans don't limit aircraft speed. The actual limits are imposed by airframe heating and fuel consumption. Keeping human crews alive is hardly the biggest engineering challenge.
Higher speed does offer a bit of advantage in BVR combat in that it allows for launching missiles with higher initial energy state.
Maybe not cruising speed, but maneuvering performance certainly is limited. This article from the US Naval Institute says outright "The greatest limiting factor in military combat aircraft is the pilot".
IMO op is really talking about wider performance envelop, i.e. unmanned platforms that can do sustained high G maneuvers at speed to better win energetics game against missiles that assume manned fighter can't sustain more than a few high G maneuvers with upperbound that would kill pilots.
Anyone who believes such a ridiculous approach would work simply hasn't been paying attention or hasn't done the math. No one is going to build drones capable of sustained high-G maneuvers. It would be a pointless waste of money because building airframes with that capability comes with too much of a weight penalty. And the latest generation of missiles has gotten so deadly that being able to pull a few more Gs in the terminal engagement phase won't save the drone anyway.
The design focus has shifted away from maneuverability, and towards better sensors and lower observability. It's far more effective to detect the adversary and shoot first rather than trying to dodge incoming fire. And if they do detect an incoming missile the defensive tactics will focus on signature reduction, EW, and decoys rather than extreme maneuvers.
The next generation of tactical aircraft (both crewed and uncrewed) will be physically larger with a higher fuel fraction in order to remain relevant in the Pacific fight. It's a long way from Guam to Taiwan. They won't be able to tank every hour as was common practice during GWOT operations in the Middle East. That larger size and higher weight necessarily imposes limits on maneuverability. I would be shocked if future UCAV airframes are stressed for more than 7G.
This is fixating on where the ball was, not where the ball could be going.
Design shifted away from maneuverability in the 90s because upper bound of manned maneuverbility was reached. Answer was to increase capability gap was pivot to stealth, sensors fusion, ew, bvr etc. When unmanned performance envelope opens up due to beyond man tier AI piloting, there's chance design will circle back to exploiting new kinematic options in conjunction with other 5G/6G advancements. It can be both, not either or. The energy math for defeating modern missiles is to outmaneuver them from afar thanks to sensors so they never reach no escape/terminal engagement range, which will lead to increase in missile complexity, which is fine, since it raises technical floor/expense of engaging next gen+ hardware and reduce less pool of capable adversaries. For me, this is possible direction for _POST_ NGAD projects. Keep in mind NGAD is mid 10s "legacy" thinking, along with associated visions of CCA/MUM-T. It wasn't concieved based on AI capabilities we now have. The point of NGAD is manned penetrating counter-air ... there's no reason to believe after NGAD won't be unmanned penetrating counter-air, and if that's the future, good reason to dump points in kinematics.
Hence I would not be surprised if future penetrating unmanned platforms = more performant airframes because they can cut down in other components, i.e. disposable, high performance, attritable shooters supported by sensors in the back meshed by flexible datalink. Especially considering wear/maintenance curve will be different for unmanned platforms that doesn't need regular flying hours. No need to support expensive engines and airframes with 8000 hour lifespan when you can cheap out on 500 because you don't expect platforms to survive more than a few sorties against peer adversaries. There's places to cut costs when designing for high performance attrition, i.e. simply having moderately sized airframes go on one way missions solves a lot of tanking problems in IndoPac.
You do realize that fighters flying today are capable of faster and harder maneuvers than they usually do, right? They are held back by the biological limits of the pilot, who must wear a pressurized flight suit, breathe pressurized oxygen, and use special breathing techniques to counteract blackouts, redouts, and other symptoms that come from pushing the human body to its limits.
The fighter meanwhile can do far more for longer. A fighter today pushed hard enough to tear off its wings, suffocate its intakes, etc. means the pilot will have been dead already for a long time prior.
>The next generation of tactical aircraft (both crewed and uncrewed) will be physically larger with a higher fuel fraction in order to remain relevant in the Pacific fight. It's a long way from Guam to Taiwan. They won't be able to tank every hour as was common practice during GWOT operations in the Middle East.
You do realize aircraft carriers exist and the US Navy has twenty of them, right? The F-35 by far has the shortest combat range of all fighters the US Navy has flown in recent times, and that is compensated by the fact they have literally moving airfields.
Some fighters flying today are only capable of exceeding human limits under very limited conditions: low altitude and limited stores. That is increasingly irrelevant. Navy tactical aircraft like the F-35C are only stressed to 7.5G.
Aircraft carriers don't solve the problem, and you have some of the basic facts wrong. The Navy is planning for an A2/AD environment where shore based missiles force carriers to stand off at longer ranges. The F-35C actually has a wider combat radius than the legacy F/A-18C but it's still not enough. Hence the focus on larger, less maneuverable designs for the next generation (plus low observable tankers).
The Navy has only 11 real carriers with catapults that can launch heavy aircraft with large fuel loads; the other amphibious ships can only operate V/STOL aircraft like the F-35B which is much shorter ranged due to limited fuel.
>Drones will continue to gradually take over a larger set of missions, but we are at least decades away from being able to write software that can perform the full spectrum of missions as well as a human pilot.
Open AI is Sam's company now, Ilya is out. The new Open AI will have no qualms about accepting DoD funding.
A drone designed for aerial combat and dogfighting would also be inherently faster than any manned fighter. It doesn't need to account for the biological limitations of the pilot(s) which are far below the physical limitations of a fighter.
With regards to lack of self-sufficiency, no proficiency at aerial tasks (eg: refueling), et al., that's a question of when they will be satisfactorily solved given the continuing advances in computing power and the programs that execute on them.