Yes, because the EU has certain requirements. You should not kill your own journalists and so on. I believe in the early 2000s some people had some optimism about a common future but since Putin took over it looked more and more grim. I believe the tipping point was the war in Georgia where the EU more or less understood that as long as he is alive, it would be difficult to have a civilized relationship.
But this is at the level of politics and personal ambition of the former KGB agent. At the level of individuals, the above is total bullshit. Most Russians I meet are really, really nice people. And I'm not even talking about engineers but common people. The only thing I didn't like is the culture of drinking and being a little too pushy in this regard.
The problem is that EU needed to find a way to integrate existing Russian Federation as a neigbour, and not some "true Scotsman" Russia that only lives in your imagination.
EU didn't want to integrate with existing RF for a long list of reasons. "As much as we could" turned out tiny. And there was no political will on the EU side to expand it despite whatever Putin was doing prior 2014 or even 2011.
So in the absense of these integrations designed to prevent wars and strife, we've got strife and wars, like how you get fender benders when driving on icy roads with summer tyres. The friction was insufficient and the thing lost control.
I can see the prevailing attitude that integration with Russia was a "nice to have" thing which could be forfeited at any moment when Russia was deemed unworthy. But winter tyres are the must as temperatures drop below zero.
Oh man I love the logic... The EU didn't want to change its standards related to not killing one's own journalists and so on so Putin had no choice but to start a war.
I see this rhetoric very often. "He had to", "obviously he had no other choice". These are all false premises. He could not kill his own journalists but he chose to, for his own advantage. He could choose cooperation instead of war, but he wanted to be remembered in history books as the guy who brought not only Belarus but also Ukraine to his empire. Well, he will be remembered, but not exactly the way he hoped to.
> it's about random unrealistic expectations placed on Russia that are not applied to other countries, in order to reject Russia.
Not at all. Russia never adopted EU integration as an official government policy and never started meaningfully working towards it like everyone else in Europe. Just search Russian news channels for progress on fulfillment of Maastricht criteria or implementation of TFEU and look how little you'll find. EU membership was always something that they demanded to be handed to them, along with dominance over Eastern Europe, because Russia never let go of its imperialism and expectation of a special status.
Even Russian liberals have hard time imaging Russia as an equal partner in the EU, with things like having merely 1 vote out of 28. Instead, Russia in the EU is imagined as an equal counterpart to the entire EU, which is a delusional expectation that will never be met.
The window of opportunity for turning the country around in the early 1990s was brief, and instead of choosing the path to becoming a normal European country, you let the old nomenklatura recover and return to power and turn the country into a hermit kingdom, which is now in the third year of winning a three-day war, losing 1000 people a day and delivering two Afghanistans a month with no end in sight, as the rich sip wine on superyachts while you live in squalor. Putin does not deserve you, but you sure do deserve Putin if you choose to internalize his propaganda and adopt adversial view of Europe, which only serves the purpose of keeping the country firmly in the hands of Putin and his buddies from the security apparatus, at the expense of everyone else's quality of life. There is no objective reason why Russians couldn't be enjoying the same quality of life as Norwegians, and yet here you are, slaves to a mediocre KGB apparatchik out of spite that Europeans don't revere you as much as you think you deserve.
Obviously I do not see any way for Russia to enter EU as a member state. Like Norway, as you said, it could only be integrated while being outside of the bloc. But, it would be a two-way road and there has to be EU goodwill to do so.
But the truth is, I've not seen any concrete steps from the EU to enable that. I'm pretty sure that Putin's government was quite positive towards EU/USA up and until 2008 with its Munich speech.
Russians saw nothing good from the EU and instead admitting that fact they are fed with offensive bullshit about dead journalists they have no business with.
When Russians wanted to get rid of Putin in 2011-2012, EU and USA basically brought popcorn and did nothing. So, nothing happened and Putin remained in power, and had to double down on potential coups. Then he saw Maidan coup as an existential danger and had to make sure it doesn't end well.
> But the truth is, I've not seen any concrete steps from the EU to enable that.
With such attitude, Eastern Europe would not have joined the EU either. Do you think anyone in 1991 wanted to see Poland in the EU? Do you think anyone came to offer EU membership on a silver platter while the Poles were sitting on their asses and reminiscing about Rzeczpospolita? Of course not: it took 15 years of determined work to get there, first to convince the existing members that it was even a good idea to begin with. Even after the negotiations officially started, membership prospects were widely seen as distant and mostly theoretical. "Oh shit, it's really happening" set in only 1-2 years before the official accession in 2004. Things first changed very slowly, and then very suddenly.
But Russia never took the first step of swallowing their pride and adpting a pragmatic approach to building relations in a constructive manner, so naturally the rest never followed. If you think that Poles and many others didn't feel humiliated and unfairly treated at many points along the way, then you're wrong, but the long-term results made it all worth it, and Poland has transformed from "that backward cousin-fucking potatoland in the East" into an integral and respected part of the EU.
> When Russians wanted to get rid of Putin in 2011-2012, EU and USA basically brought popcorn and did nothing.
It's funny to see how the narrative keeps shifting. When it's convenient, the EU and US are encircling and staging coups and posing existential danger, and when another story is more convenient, they are doing too little. It's always someone else's fault.
> Do you think anyone in 1991 wanted to see Poland in the EU?
A hundred percent positive. Maybe Poland was viewed with some reservations, but with Czech, Baltic states and Croatia there was no cloud of doubt. Each one of these had patron states inside EU who would spend effort to ensure their entrance. Poland they mostly got as a land bridge and because of its patron USA.
> But Russia never took the first step of swallowing their pride
Why?
Seriously though, why does anybody has to swallow pride in order to enter bilateral relations? You've also refused to swallow your pride regarding potraying some journalists as a principial obstacle. Shouldn't pride swallowing go both ways, if at all?
Now we are having a war because apparently not enough pride was swallowed by both sides, and I hope you are happy. Any takeaways from that?
> narrative keeps shifting
There are multiple narratives.
One narrative for Putin who does not like what Ukraine is doing and also does not like coups.
A different narrative for fellow Russians who have uneasy relations with Putin and are divided on coups but also do not like what Ukraine is doing, for only partly overlapping of reasons.
I am not Putin so my view is the latter, but since we all live in society I can also decode the former.
> A hundred percent positive. Maybe Poland was viewed with some reservations, but with Czech, Baltic states and Croatia there was no cloud of doubt. Each one of these had patron states inside EU who would spend effort to ensure their entrance. Poland they mostly got as a land bridge and because of its patron USA.
That is not a very widely shared view, to put it mildly. Memoirs of Eastern European statesmen, diplomats and other officials, as well as business representatives are littered with stories how they were laughed out of the room when they raised the topic of EU and NATO membership in early-to-mid 1990s. The prevalent vision was the so-called "multi-speed Europe"[1] with Western European members maintaining their tight integration and newer members getting some form of a diluted access to the common market.
The fact that Eastern European countries became full members of the EU and NATO in 15 years without any restrictions is considered one of the most impressive diplomatic achievements in those countries, odds of which were considered fairly low in the early days.
Ukraine is currently in a similar situation. While they have lots of sympathy, Ukraine is nevertheless a large country with lots of social and economic issues (now amplified by the war), and the EU is hesitant about fast integration out of fear that those issues could spill over into the EU. Through Macron, even the concept of "multi-speed Europe" has returned to circulation.[2]
> Seriously though, why does anybody has to swallow pride in order to enter bilateral relations?
Because it is Russia, not anyone else, who has the delusion of being a great empire that deserves preferential treatment. If you are interested in EU integration, then there's a proven path to that goal. If you are too proud to take that path, then good luck underperforming for another century. The positive effects of EU's common market are well known, and above all it's your loss if boyars keep you out of it because Europeans don't bow down deep enough in front of them.
Perhaps there was an option of multi-speed Europe and perhaps it will perform better in maintaining peace in Europe, but it wasn't chosen. It was decided to integrate all the Eastern Europe into the EU. I fail to believe in ten diplomatic miracles in a row. It has to be a policy.
> If you are interested in EU integration,
We are not. That's the wrong way to frame it. Russia is not interested in EU integration in the sense that you are imagining. We don't care about common market and all that bullshit. We also don't need your money as other young EU members do.
We need(ed) a very different kind of integration, one that EU has failed to follow. Putin was practically betting his first two terms on that it will happen, but EU turned out too stiff. It's a question of civilization and cultural choice and not some common market and farmer subsidies.
You are interested in integration with Russia because otherwise Russia will continue to bash in heads of other countries over their integration with EU, among other things. Basically, because we can and want to go to war over it. We didn't integrate with the EU so our neighbours also won't.
And you can expect the same treatment from Turkey in the future as you disengage from cooperation.
> Perhaps there was an option of multi-speed Europe and perhaps it will perform better in maintaining peace in Europe, but it wasn't chosen. It was decided to integrate all the Eastern Europe into the EU.
That decision came late in the process, and wasn't something that was thought to be viable at the start. To say that it was certain from the start is just plain wrong.
> We need(ed) a very different kind of integration, one that EU has failed to follow. Putin was practically betting his first two terms on that it will happen, but EU turned out too stiff. It's a question of civilization and cultural choice and not some common market and farmer subsidies.
Exactly what I said: expectation of a special treatment. Russia simply has never wanted to become a normal European country like the rest, because it has imperialistic delusions about cultural superiority, which come in the way of pursuing pragmatic and mutually beneficial relations. Imagine if Germans still held on to their ideas of superiority and saw Danes, Poles, Czechs, Austrians, and others as lesser people, and threatened to invade if their governments did anything Germans didn't like. Willingness to let go of imperialist mindset and adopt humanist values is a crucial step in entering the European family of countries, and the change can only come from within.
> We don't care about common market and all that bullshit. We also don't need your money as other young EU members do.
Calling the common market or other key areas of European cooperation "bullshit" is a sign of deep immaturity. Common agricultural policy, joint customs rules or harmonized food safety standards are not as sexy as fantasies of "bashing in heads of other countries", but serve the people better. But ultimately, I don't care that you don't care. It's your life that is worse off as a result of that, not mine.
> You are interested in integration with Russia because otherwise Russia will continue to bash in heads of other countries over their integration with EU, among other things. Basically, because we can and want to go to war over it.
Not at all. For the longest time, Europe expected Russia to grow into a normal, healthy society that could become a part of pan-European cooperation sooner or later. Bombing each others cities is simply not the way European leaders think or expect others to think and act when it comes to resolving political conflicts in Europe. Nobody ever thinks about calling their military leaders for advice when they are stuck in disagreements with other countries over fishing policies. That's why the attack on Ukraine was such a surprise: it is not a brilliant power move, but unbelievable stupidity that puts you on track of reliving the 1990s again. That's the great irony of Putinism - for all the bitterness and resentment towards Gorbachev and fall of the USSR, he has cursed the country into going through that once more.
The problem of EU as I see it is that it is comprised of "normal" European countries - meaning, for all of their economic development, small-ish and not having direct military ambitions, or requirement to have those. These are countries living in their cute doll house.
USA isn't "normal european country" - but it's far. Russia is not a normal european country and cannot be one, much as a hippo cannot be a horse. Turkey also is not one. And these two you are directly bordering.
There is some discrepancy: you are telling that Russians can only blame themselves for being worse off, but in fact Russians aren't complaining, and it is fellow Europeans who all the time blame Russia and also complain about their political and economic conditions.
> The problem of EU as I see it is that it is comprised of "normal" European countries - meaning, for all of their economic development, small-ish and not having direct military ambitions, or requirement to have those.
If Russia were a member of the EU, it would not even make it to the top 3 of largest economies in the union. Nor will the military be anything remarkable after Soviet stockpiles run out or rot away without leaving any more T-72 bodies to refurbish. You are living in the final days of a colonial empire that hasn't yet come to terms with the fact that the world has changed. Spain, France, the UK, Portugal, Italy, Belgium and others all had "military ambitions" and empires once, several of them much more impressive than Russia ever was. The war against Ukraine perfectly mirrors the pointless wars that European colonial powers were waging in the middle of the previous century in Malaysia, Algeria, Angola, Indochina and elsewhere. Desperately clinging to the past won't change anything and only prolongs the pain of inevitable transformation.
> There is some discrepancy: you are telling that Russians can only blame themselves for being worse off, but in fact Russians aren't complaining, and it is fellow Europeans who all the time blame Russia and also complain about their political and economic conditions.
Why are you killing people in Ukraine every day if you are happy with your lives?
The entire war seems like a giant temper tantrum over the fact that a nation that you've seen as one of the closest to you sees you as the inferior option and has chosen the EU as their partner instead. And what fuels the incredible inferiority complex, jealousy and resentment is knowing how it's all true: European integration is a better option for Ukraine, and that despite all the "jewrope" and "gayropa" garbage on the telly and in the newspapers, people really do live better, happier, safer and more fulfilling lives in Europe.
You act like creeps who think that you have a special relationship with that woman down the street, and viciously attack when she dares to have a relationship with anyone but you, while she has time and time again made it clear that she is not interested in you. Beating and raping her won't make her love you either.
I agree that these large military actions of two industrially developed nations against each other is mostly an echo of the days past. But here it goes by happening to Russia, where I live. I have no way to interact with that inevitable transformation of yours, and the people who are promising this transformation are very unsympathetic at the moment; but either way it's I can't do much here.
The problem is that we were promised this "inevitable transformation" by various parties in 1994 and in 1999 and in 2004 and in 2009 and in 2014 (with more hysterical undertones) and in 2019. Here we are in 2024 and instead of that inevitable transformation we are in the midst of a big war, and not only ones at that.
> people really do live better, happier, safer and more fulfilling lives in Europe.
I don't think anybody ever argued with it; much like how living in LA or Barcelona is a vastly more superior option than living in North Dakota or Bucharest.
But the main question here is whether the EU magic dust can make life in Ukraine any better, in the amounts supplied and administred by Ukraine. Crimea bet against that and Donetsk/Lugansk population also bet against that. I do believe people live better, happier, safer and more fulfilling lives in Sevastopol these days than they do in Odessa on the other side of the front.
"Beating and raping her" applies to Ukraine's treatment of Donetsk, Lugansk and Crimea before you can apply it to Russia. Ukraine should realize they will have to part with those relations which now only exist in their heads.
And before you say most people in Crimea didn't really choose to be overrun by little green men: Most people in Ukraine didn't really choose to get rid of their president by the means of Maidan coup either. Sometimes we play the cards which were dealt.
But this is at the level of politics and personal ambition of the former KGB agent. At the level of individuals, the above is total bullshit. Most Russians I meet are really, really nice people. And I'm not even talking about engineers but common people. The only thing I didn't like is the culture of drinking and being a little too pushy in this regard.