The same happened with accountants and spreadsheet software, the number of accounting jobs grew. The actual work they performed became different. I think a similar thing is likely to happen in the software world.
Tech has already learned there’s not enough real frontier left to reap the bounty of(removing zero interest rates that incentivize mere flow of capital). This stuff is being invested in to yield the most productivity at the least cost. There will either be a permanent net decrease in demand or, being so high level, most openings will pay no more than 60-70K in an America (likely with reduced benefits) where wages are already largely stagnant.
I think there is definitely merit to your statements. I believe the future of the average software developer job involves a very high level language, API integration, basic full stack work with a lot of AI assistance. And those roles will mostly be at small to medium businesses who can't afford the salaries or benefits that the industry has standard in the US.
Almost every small business I know has an accountant or book keeper position which is just someone who had no formal education and the role is just managing QuickBooks. I don't think the need for formally educated accountants who can handle large corporate books decreased significantly, but I don't have any numbers to back that up. Just making the comparison to say I don't think the hard / cool stuff that a lot of software developers love doing is going away. But these are just my thoughts.
