It’s not that noteworthy though. Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. It’s a really small place with minor strategic value. Incessant meat waves do eventually work buts it’s not a winning strategy.
“Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They can’t replace the sovereign wealth fund.
Not to say the US shouldn’t be sending every last bomb it can find
"Russia cannot sustain the war effort at this cost and this pace for the entirety of Ukraine. "
That is something I heard ... since the beginning of the war, yet I see no signs of it. Russias economy is in full war mode, producing way more tanks and shells than the west. Ukraine has serious ammunition and manpower problems and the front can collapse. Also Ukraine prepared for a succesful offensive, and neglected the defense.
"It’s a really small place with minor strategic value"
And that small place was one of the best fortified places and succesfully defended since 2014. The fallback positions are not nearly as good prepared. And the chances are low, that they can even fallback with no more roads under their control. It is really not looking good at the moment.
Russias economy is extremely far from full war mode. Not even close. It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage.
"It is producing extremely few tanks, but is rather refurbishing old ones from storage."
That is effectivly the same. They can bring more tanks (100+ every month according to british intelligence) in, than they loose. Not the case for Ukraine.
And if you mind telling me, what of my post was fiction in your perception, I might consider giving you sources.
The Russian positions are weak and also largely mud. This is an operational challenge for sure, but the apparent strategy appears to be a localized counter attack to support the withdrawal.
The russians don't really have to move. They are already close enough to shoot with small arms fire at the whole withdraw area. But the ukrainians have to move, the counter attack and the withdraw itself- it is a total disaster. The order came way too late, probably because of stupid symbolic reasons, because too many cannot handle unpleasant truth. And you did not tell me yet, what exact statement of mine were fantasy.
"The second line of defense, a few kilometers behind the front, is still being built, according to nearly a dozen interviewed soldiers."
"To reinforce infantry units after heavy losses, Ukraine has transferred soldiers from units specialized in artillery or logistics to infantry positions, according to the soldiers interviewed by the Kyiv Independent. This means soldiers deployed on the first defensive line may not even know the basic survival skills of an infantryman"
Yeah and nothing they write contradicts anything I wrote. I also read them, but Kyevindependent and NYT are quite reputable as well.
"Ukrainian forces will likely be able to establish new defensive lines not far beyond Avdiivka, which will likely prompt the culmination of the Russian offensive in this area. "
If there would have been a second line truly ready and prepared, there would be no need to write it this way.
And all they wrote about the retreat, is that they have not seen pictures of large groups of ukrainians surrender. They do not deny, that the order came to leave the wounded behind. Or that lots of equipment had to be left behind. They just do not mention it. But they do not wrote the retreat went pretty well, like you did.
"Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanized maneuver across large swaths of territory"
And this is correct - but they are aware and state the possibility, that the front can collapse.
Why do you think so? There are many signs of Ukrainian starvation: 25% of population is displaced, they always were dependent on Russian energy, which they are cut from, they receive asymmetrical damage from Russian drone strikes.
I don't see much signs of starving from Russian side at the same time.
“Sustain” is a really funky term that’s hard to define. Like, they can keep refurbing tanks. They can keep funneling out meat. But they can’t replace the ships. They can’t replace the sovereign wealth fund.
Not to say the US shouldn’t be sending every last bomb it can find