That's pure nonsense. Here's how it's really going to play out: China keeps building warships and waits patiently. Once it's navy outclasses the US Navy the US simply abandons Taiwan because it won't dare to get in a shooting war with China when it's guaranteed to lose it.
Xi Jinping is 70, and he wants to see this happen while he's still running things. That affects the timing.
It's a failure of dictators. If Hitler had taken a decade to consolidate Europe into Greater Germany, remaining at peace with the UK and the USSR, things might have worked better for the Nazis.
If Xi wanted to invade Taiwan he could have done it already. The US is not able to militarily defend it anymore. Obviously it would cause massive, massive problems for China, for instance it could completely stall the economic growth and as a result likely even create political instability but if 'uniting' Taiwan was the goal worth pursuing above anything else and it would need to be done NOW because Xi wants to live to see it happen then Chinese military is already capable of it and would have done it already. But they don't because they are rising superpower and Xi apparently doesn't want to see united Taiwan that badly or his grip on power is not so strong and others are not that keen on a shooting war with the US. So they just wait, because with every passing year China gets stronger and the US weaker. So they don't need to do anything to 'win by default'.
> The US is not able to militarily defend it (Taiwan) anymore.
Taiwan is not really defensible, in the sense that Ukraine is. There's no depth. It's a narrow island with a mountain range down the center, and the vulnerable developed area is a strip about 15-20km deep along the west coast. Look at a map. If there is a war there, not much will be left.
I know, that was my point. But there was a time from 50s to 2010? or so that US Navy was so strong compared to the Chinese Navy that invasion was not possible at all, the Chinese wouldn't even be able to reach the shores of Taiwan.
