There's definitely a disconnect because if that's the best example of a game theoretic prediction, I stand by my statement that game theory is useless in geopolitics.
What would China's first concrete move be after it's final final warning [1]? Which faction in the party would have most influence over Xi Jinping in such an event and how much influence do they have over the military? How much would China be willing to compromise it's status as a trading partner with the West if push comes to shove? Those would be useful predictions that can be acted on.
China's final warning meme is actually very illustrative. The context is PRC was both warning and doing - actively attempting to shoot down TW / US based U2s despite having limited capabilities. The chefs kiss that this is an USSR meme is that PRC end up shooting down more U2s using modified soviet hardware than USSR herself. Even more so when consider PRC issued final warning to USSR that ended up in border skirmishes. PRC's actual final warning is "don't say we didn't warn you" has been predictative of PRC kinetic action with near certainty. USSR/India border skirmishes. Korean war against UN. PRC also has directly supported North Vietnam against the French, and threatened UK when they hinted at granting HK independence under Thatcher. That's every NPT nuclear state over territorial/security issues less important than TW. It doesn't always lead to immediate action, but has consistently been prelude to it.
What would China's first concrete move be after it's final final warning [1]? Which faction in the party would have most influence over Xi Jinping in such an event and how much influence do they have over the military? How much would China be willing to compromise it's status as a trading partner with the West if push comes to shove? Those would be useful predictions that can be acted on.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%27s_final_warning