Pretty much as with OSS in general: Lagging behind the cutting edge in terms of functionality/ux/performance, in areas where and as long as big tech is feeling combative, but eventually, probably, good enough across all axis to be useable.
There could be a close-ish future where OpenAI tech will simply solve most business problems and there is no need for anything dramatically better in terms of AI tech. Think of word/google docs: It's doing what most businesses need well enough. For the most part people are not longing for anything else and happy with it just staying familiar. This is where Open Source can catch up relatively easily.
Oh well, it's an evaluation, but I feel you may have glossed over the "in areas where and as long as big tech is feeling combative" part.
> to tools like Blender
"Tools like" needs a little more content to not be filled massive amounts of magical OSS thinking. Blender has in recent years gained an interesting amount of pro-adoption, but, in general, as for the industries that I have good insight into, inkscape, gimp, ardour or penpot are not winning. This is mostly debated by people who are not actually mainly and professionally using these tools.
There are exceptions, of course (nextcloud might be used over google workspace when compliance is critical) but businesses will on average use the best tool, because the perceived value is still high enough and the cost is not, specificially when contrasted with labor cost and training someone to use a different tool.
Are you seriously claiming most oss is irrelevant? Maybe in consumer facing products such as libre office. But oss powers most of commercial products. I wouldn't be surprised if most functionality in all of current software is built from a thin layer over open source software.
There could be a close-ish future where OpenAI tech will simply solve most business problems and there is no need for anything dramatically better in terms of AI tech. Think of word/google docs: It's doing what most businesses need well enough. For the most part people are not longing for anything else and happy with it just staying familiar. This is where Open Source can catch up relatively easily.