> only about 50 companies met that expectation out of the 4,000 or so that went through their program. That’s 1.25% ... All those 4,000 kids who went into YC also thought they were visionaries, and where are they now? They’re all in the startup cemetery, except for a dozen or so who despite the low odds managed to flip 10 heads in a row.
This is a bit nitpicky, but:
* Some of those 4,000 may end up super successful but haven't yet; this isn't considering lag.
* Ten heads in a row is 0.1%; this is closest to six heads in a row.
I agree that your odds are low, and you should consider how much you care about a small chance of a massive success. But the odds do matter!
This is a bit nitpicky, but:
* Some of those 4,000 may end up super successful but haven't yet; this isn't considering lag.
* Ten heads in a row is 0.1%; this is closest to six heads in a row.
I agree that your odds are low, and you should consider how much you care about a small chance of a massive success. But the odds do matter!