The main flaw I see in the argument is that assumes that AIs should be generalists... But if you look at the reality of our current human economy, you will notice that generalists cannot even get jobs; the economy needs specialists. I think the same will happen with AI; companies will need specialist AIs, not generalists.
And since there are many different industries/specializations with a lot of nuanced, undocumented knowledge which is not available online, it will be difficult for a single large company to acquire all that specialist information. I think the bottleneck isn't going to be hardware costs, but merely putting together the optimal training data. To do this, you need to find the top experts in the world in any given field.
Unfortunately, it's difficult to do right now because top experts are often not given credit these days. Those who are promoted as the top people in any given field are often mostly good at politics and lack the deep nuanced knowledge that would be required to produce top quality training data.
And since there are many different industries/specializations with a lot of nuanced, undocumented knowledge which is not available online, it will be difficult for a single large company to acquire all that specialist information. I think the bottleneck isn't going to be hardware costs, but merely putting together the optimal training data. To do this, you need to find the top experts in the world in any given field.
Unfortunately, it's difficult to do right now because top experts are often not given credit these days. Those who are promoted as the top people in any given field are often mostly good at politics and lack the deep nuanced knowledge that would be required to produce top quality training data.