Interesting. I'm actually using Java on projects, but via Groovy. Others I know are coming from Ruby in to Clojure. So, "Java" as such isn't the direct factor, but JVM is a common one. Will it be enough to keep it from COBOL-status?
I remember Bjarne Stroustrup telling Java isn't platform independent, Java is the platform. Meaning compiled C++ runs on processors directly, but compiled Java runs on JVM. So JVM becomes analogous to a processor.
So comparing JVM based languages is like comparing languages directly compiled to a processor like a ARM processor. Future of JVM is different than future of Java.
Just like future of C++ is different than future of pentium.