How long before computer programming skills become as everyday as basic vehicle repair knowledge?
I guess its not really the same thing, because computer programs aren't as homogeneous as car guts (although I wouldn't really know) and cars aren't being engineered in repair shops. But if you look at common frameworks like Rails or plain HTML or WordPress then you could almost think of those areas as being like their own mechanical specialties.
Point being there are a lot of relatively high-tech devices that we maintain where those careers aren't considered particularly prestigious, and I wonder if at some point software development will be a little more like that.
I mean in the first few decades of the development of motor vehicles (I know, computer programs aren't combustion engines, they are much more varied and complex than that) there was a lot of invention and innovation and those people were probably considered to have fairly elite skills and knowledge.
Ironically enough one of my goals is to cause this to happen. Which while sounding like some sort of betrayal, is really an enrichment of human creativity. Concentrating the heart of what defines the 21st century into a sort of weakly protected oligarchy makes me feel nervous about the future. The thing about cars is that they represent a different revolution, one which doesn't necessarily require people to join in on what would probably be called "hacking" if the equivalent tasks were done on a computer to have their full effect.
Part of the power of the home computer and electronics revolutions is that the programmability of the computer is itself a medium. A largely underutilized medium that has more potential than most others. To have this medium marginalized by a widespread belief that it's beyond peoples capability is really...depressing.
While I understand that a modern technologist can sometimes be a tinkerer and a maintainer of code, and that can lead to equivalences to the auto mechanic of the early days of auto, I think you hit quite well on the difference: autos aren't made in auto shops. They are engineered, and those engineers are quite a different creature than the auto mechanic.
Not all hackers are great software engineers, capable of planning and building a product that people will enjoy and pay for, just as not all mechanics and hobbyist engineers are capable of designing the next great automobile.
For hackers, the barriers to entry are lower, and the reach of our quickly-developed products is vast indeed. But there are still the human barriers, those of willingness to succeed, passion for work, and raw skill.
That hacking is becoming more widespread is not a bad thing for the field, or a harbinger for its twilight. It's part maturity, and it's mostly success.
There's a huge difference between having a surface understanding of HTML and Javascript and having the right kind of abstract thinking ability to do non-trivial programming. In my experience most people just don't have the knack for large-scale abstract logical thinking that programming requires.
The big difference between programming and auto repair is that auto repair consists of executing a few well-defined procedures on a known, consistent device whereas non-trivial programming is always a matter of solving a new problem.
Which begs the question: what can an individual programmer do to prevent turning into a "commodity"? Is this threat serious enough that we should all start learning new disciplines now?
On another note, I think there's an analogy to be made with mathematics. I bet that mathematics as a "profession" has been declining in the past few decades with the rise of math education. My impression is that most mathematicians nowadays have solid domain knowledge in at least one other discipline. Anyone care to (dis)confirm this?
How long before computer programming skills become as everyday as basic vehicle repair knowledge?
I guess its not really the same thing, because computer programs aren't as homogeneous as car guts (although I wouldn't really know) and cars aren't being engineered in repair shops. But if you look at common frameworks like Rails or plain HTML or WordPress then you could almost think of those areas as being like their own mechanical specialties.
Point being there are a lot of relatively high-tech devices that we maintain where those careers aren't considered particularly prestigious, and I wonder if at some point software development will be a little more like that.
I mean in the first few decades of the development of motor vehicles (I know, computer programs aren't combustion engines, they are much more varied and complex than that) there was a lot of invention and innovation and those people were probably considered to have fairly elite skills and knowledge.