Short answer - no. Even if they achieve their ambitious plan, 5% is still a large number. Look at how hard it has been to eradicate the last of polio, and that has a lifelong vaccine.
It's also a self-balancing system. As HIV becomes rarer, fewer people will be concerned about it, and therefore fewer will bother taking Prep daily. In turn, HIV becomes more infectious, and more people contract it.
It will probably stabilize with about 0.4% of humans being infected.
Lots of things affect about 0.4% of people, because that's rare enough that most people don't have any friend or colleague affected, and therefore don't take precautions.
No - just a guess based on the fact that me and the people around me tend to know ~250 people. Ie. there are probably 250 people who would find out if I got diabetes and died. Those people would then probably take a little more care of their health, and take steps to avoid the same fate.
> Ie. there are probably 250 people who would find out if I got diabetes and died. Those people would then probably take a little more care of their health
Around 14% of Americans have diabetes, so I don't think that really pans out.
At this point, even if a genuine vaccine/cure for AIDS were developed; most people wouldn't even know until a loved one directly affected or afflicted told them.
The "breakthrough in AIDS research" or "cure in sight" headlines are so recurrent at this point that people are just numb to a real breakthrough.
A tangent: if an article's title is a question, the answer, vast majority of time, is either "no", or not a clear answer at all. I'm sure articles that answer the title with "yes" exist, but I cannot even remember one.
> Betteridge's law of headlines is an adage that states: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." [0]
Short answer - no. Even if they achieve their ambitious plan, 5% is still a large number. Look at how hard it has been to eradicate the last of polio, and that has a lifelong vaccine.