American generals have stated it could be as early as 2027 or 2030. When a country says they'll take land as soon as they can, I'm inclined to believe them. China missile deployment on South China sea is quickly becoming overwhelming.
The US has bases both north and south of Taiwan, in Japan and the Philippines respectively.
I’m against China seizing territory in the South China Sea and believe that the US needs to focus on rebuilding its MIC (as shown in the Ukraine conflict). We should address both of those serious issues promptly.
China says it's coming. US military says it's coming. Policymakers in US and EU are adapting to this shift. How am I getting downvoted and told off for trying to discuss the consequences to tech markets in a tech oriented forum on a thread about the consequences of it?
I’m not telling you off: I think you raised a common sentiment and I was responding.
I’m disagreeing that the saber rattling from two countries both experiencing civil unrest and economic hardship will translate into an armed conflict for Taiwan (generally) and that the missile buildup in the SCS is “overwhelming” (specifically). My point about US bases adjacent to Taiwan is a specific response: we already have forces with both access to the Pacific and clear lanes to Taiwan, positioned and ready.
The job of the DOD is to let the nation know our military status — and they’re letting us know that the building of US fleets versus Chinese fleets implies a weakness in the 2027-2030 range, which could be utilized by China. But that doesn’t automatically translate into an armed conflict during that period.
More broadly we’re shifting policy to compete (eg, by on-shoring) — but again, that’s different than an armed conflict.
I think navigating this conflict requires we not be hyperbolic in either direction: dismissal nor concern.
I agree with the content of your comment. I hardly think I was hyperbolic when stating "compute might become more expensive, thoughts?". A knee-jerk "whoa calm down" response to people raising such topics will inhibit healthy discussion. Someone said this was a non concern and I defended the value of thinking about it and discussing it. So at that point to say things are getting blown out of proportion is not warranted at all.
