I think you would be interested in Google's internal memo[0] that did the rounds here a couple weeks ago. The claim is that OpenAI and all competition is destined to fall behind open-source. All you need is a big model to be released and all fine tuning can be done by a smart, budget, distributed workforce.
But why would a big model be released? LLaMA can't even begin to compete with GPT-4. Fine-tuning won't make it more intelligent. The only entity currently able to compete with OpenAI/Microsoft is Google with their planned Gemini model.
…today. But with the amount of (justifiable, IMO) attention LLMs are now getting, I don't see how this won't change soon. And there's quite a bit of incentive for second- or third-tier companies to contribute to something that could kneecap the bigger players.
[0]: https://www.semianalysis.com/p/google-we-have-no-moat-and-ne...