I wonder if there's enough info about how to do tradesmen's jobs online for that to happen. Programmers are at risk because we filled the internet with free training materials but many jobs aren't like that especially anything with a physical component.
This is an interesting point. A family member of mine is what we call here a medical evaluator - not sure if it has a direct equivalent in e.g. the US and how it is called here, but those are doctors who assess the disabilities of workers who apply for a pension due to illness or accident. This involves exploring the patient and then making the decision and justifying it in a report. The latter two seem like tasks that LLMs should be able to do easily.
However, we tried a description of a fake case to see what Bing could do, and it couldn't do much. And I think the reason is that there are very detailed documents on the rules that they follow for their decisions, but these are not online - they are in a private intranet and they can't take them out of there. If Bing had access to those documents I don't think it would have much of a problem.
So maybe a way for workers to protect themselves from being replaced by AI is not uploading much information about their jobs to the Internet... I wonder if this will lead to a situation like guilds in the middle ages, treating job skills essentially as secrets.
I don't know if it is enough yet but there has been an explosion of this kind of content on Youtube over the last 10 years. For typical home repairs it seems most topics are pretty well covered.
