Are there actually more transgender people, or are people more willing to self-identify as transgender? Compared to 20 years ago, being openly transgender was far more taboo, so it follows that people were less willing to identify as transgender for these kinds of surveys.
As an aside, "transgenderism" is a relatively contentious term because while historically it had a purely medical definition, more recently certain groups have reappropriated it to refer to it as if it was an ideology, which does a huge disservice to transgender people.
That's an interesting question. I doubt we'll ever be able to answer.
I do wonder if some of the increase is a shift in how people perceive their own gender. Perhaps some in the non binary would have used different language in the past. I wasn't aware of the term 20 years ago.
I think 'non-binary' gender is most likely a result of people being told that being a man or woman is no longer related to the material reality of one's sex but instead is some mysterious inner feeling of gender identity that can't really be explained or understood except by reference to cultural gender stereotypes. It's the identity of the gap left between these exaggerations of masculinity and femininity.
That's also probably why non-binary identity is overwhelmingly the most prevalent amongst the youngest generations, as they've been brought up being taught the ideology of gender identity as if it's a fact.
> Compared to 20 years ago, being openly transgender was far more taboo, so it follows that people were less willing to identify as transgender for these kinds of surveys.
Maybe we'll know 20 years from now, because it is commonly accepted.
If the rate stays mostly flat, when it is acceptable, then we probably had no increase in the previous 20 years (from now).
If the rate of the next 20 years is trending up, then it is likely that it was trending up before it became acceptable.
Do you think being transgender is truly accepted now and there is no barrier to coming out as trans? The 20 years thing only makes sense if we are at "peak acceptance" - and it's easy to see that we are extraordinarily far from anything like that. Even for homosexuality, which has become much more accepted in the USA and many European countries in the last few years, there is still significant stigma associated with coming out in a large number of families and social groups - a minority, hopefully, but a very large one. Trans identities are nowhere near as acceptable as being gay, so any comparison will be heavily skewed by people's willingness to share, or even to accept this for themselves.
One of the reasons why those numbers seem to sharply change is that the environment became less hostile to these people. It's hardly surprising countries like Iran have seemingly low rates of homosexuality when openly gay men are being executed by the state.
It's absolutely possible there are other factors, but considering last year even Fox News produced a short positive report about a trans teenager in a conservative family[0] it's clear society has changed a bit.
There's some evidence that this happens in the western world too, though not forcibly imposed by the government, but guided by parents who would rather have a straight daughter or son than a gay son or daughter.
There is data. We can simply ask boomers if they are gay/trans. Though that doesn’t help in examining if the measurable change in the Zoomer generation is physical (nature) or social (nurture).
There’s obviously been an increase in self-identification of people as gay/trans as social acceptance has increased, but that doesn’t mean that the number of gay and trans individuals is actually greater than it was historically. We don’t know how many men worldwide were attracted to other men 1000 years ago. Period.
Many boomers grew up in places where coming out would have subjected them to forcible "conversion" practices, pariah status, criminal prosecution, or violence. To stay safe, many gay people of older generations were just people who "had a room mate" and/or "never married". Some of these people may answer differently today, but I don't imagine it is easy after living a life of being conditioned otherwise.
I also personally know boomers who are definitely bisexual, but they don't really accept or understand the concept of bisexuality, so they round themselves to straight or gay (mostly straight).
Asking boomers if they're gay/trans isn't a reliable way of getting that data. Just look at all the conservative Christian politicians who self-identify as straight, but then are caught in gay sex scandals.
