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And yet still has some of the highest property values in the country.

Curious.



Let's see how those values hold up through the cycle of hiring freezes and layoffs that's just getting started.

I suspect (but can't prove) that commercial real estate is a leading indicator of what to expect in the housing market. We'll see.


My personal opinion is this cycle of "hiring freezes and layoffs" will be minuscule compared to 2000, or 2008, and even those didn't bring SF prices back to rationality. Geological and socioeconomic realities will always keep SF propped up.


I have no horse in the race as I rent in the east bay.

This just isn't going to happen. If anything, the declining commercial real estate is going to push up home values further because people want better WFH setups.


Whatever you can buy in SF will be 2x as nice for 0.5x the money if you buy it elsewhere, though. There is no need to live in the metro area if you WFH.

That's just one factor that wasn't in play in 2000 and 2008.


There's a lot of high paying jobs. Demand for those jobs drives up demand for local properties. Costs increase accordingly.

You can also look at it from the supply side. Imagine local property costs were not high, and you were at said high paying job. It'd be perfectly logical to start accumulating said properties either as a long-term investment, or to just rent out as a passive[ish] income. And up go costs.




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