Yes, it's a nest, and it's a modeling problem. Few people really talk about inflow and outflow and flux-in-general, I think most just pick one particular issue and hammer at it until it goes their way. There's very little pro/con analysis among single issues, let alone pro/con analysis across the spectrum and over combinations of actions we might have the government do or not do. I'll charitably interpret your reply as saying that (clear AA benefits) - (clear AA harms) + (unforeseen AA plus/minus side-effects) > 0. I might even agree with that, but you've offered no argument for why that is since you likely think "It's obvious" and you've not done any exploration into the space of other possible side-effects or other ways of increasing black people's economic status. My problem isn't with the particular solutions people propose so much as it is with how these solutions get proposed and argued.
I was glad to see your comment, this one and the previous. I basically agree with you. I can tell you that I have considered many of the inputs and outputs you listed, and perhaps others (do I have a formula with values assigned to each variable? of course not). Ultimately, I'm unconvinced there is a final model that can be applied to address all the issues. Therefore, in the interim while consideration is put into the details of such a possible (or impossible) model, action is necessary. My problem is with discrimination. If there are better alternatives to AA, I'd like to hear them. Unfortunately, nearly every one who argues against AA simply wants to eliminate it with nothing proposed as an alternative.
