A lot of people, not nearly all of whom are technical users, which pretty clearly goes against the narrative that Mastodon is too difficult to use. Although to be fair a lot of people are also complaining about it, but the lesson here seems to be that people are more willing to put up with complexity and inconvenience than they're given credit for.
That it's still a minority of Twitter users doesn't make it a failure for Mastodon. This isn't a zero-sum game.
It kiiiind of is a zero sum game, since if you’re signed up for both, you’ll naturally use the one that gives you better results for your chosen metric. For twitter it’s usually engagement, so if you get a lot of engagement on twitter and little on the fediverse, you’ll end up focusing on twitter.
Assuming that Twitter doesn't crash and burn in the next week or so, and assuming Mastodon doesn't draw enough users to create its own network effect, sure. But then, people don't always act according to a single metric. Mastodon doesn't have ads and it doesn't follow a single moderation policy. I can see people sticking with both for different reasons.
